It all comes down to this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale, the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway, this Saturday, August 29 at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
For the first time in series history, the NASCAR Cup Series has overcome a stoppage in competition due to a pandemic, mid-year scheduling changes and back-to-back doubleheaders to get to this point in the year. Now the drivers have just one last chance to etch their names in the 2020 Playoff grid, as this is the first time Daytona International Speedway has hosted the regular season finale. Since the inception of the Playoffs in the series in 2004, Richmond Raceway held the regular season finale from 2004 to 2017 (14 years) and then from 2018-2019 Indianapolis Motor Speedway hosted the final regular season event.
The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs is currently operating in its third iteration of the postseason’s points system since its inception in 2004. The first Playoff points system (from 2004 to 2009) had the top 10 to 12 drivers earn their position in the Playoffs by points only. The second version of the Playoff points system (2010 to 2013) incorporated the top 10 drivers to get in on points/wins with the addition of two extra drivers referred to as the Wildcards. The third version of the Playoff points system (2014 to Present) features drivers vying for the top 16 Playoff spots either by points or the ‘Win and You’re In’ rule. The third version of the Playoffs also instituted the elimination style format with four drivers being eliminated from the Playoffs at the conclusion of each postseason round culminating with the Championship 4 battling it out for the title in the season finale.
Playoff Points System 1 (2004-2006 – Top 10 in on Points; 2007-2009 – Top 12 in on Points)
Four drivers have come from outside the postseason cut-off to make the Playoffs at Richmond in the first iteration of the Playoff championship format:
- Jeremy Mayfield in 2004 made up a 55-point deficit
- Ryan Newman in 2005 made up a one-point deficit
- Kasey Kahne in 2006 made up a 30-point deficit
- Brian Vickers in 2009 made up a 20-point deficit
Playoff Points System 2 (2010-2013 – Top 10 in on Wins/Points and Two Wildcards)
Seven drivers have come from outside the postseason cut-off to make the Playoffs at Richmond in the second iteration of the Playoff championship format that incorporates the Wild Card:
- Greg Biffle and Clint Bowyer are the two drivers that clinched the Wild Card in 2010 to make the Playoffs. Biffle was 11th in points with one win; Bowyer was 12th in points with no wins heading into the regular season finale.
- Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin are the two drivers that clinched the Wild Card in 2011 to make the Playoffs. Keselowski was 11th in points with three wins; Hamlin was 12th in points with one win heading into the regular season finale.
- Kasey Kahne and Jeff Gordon are the two drivers that clinched the Wild Card in 2012 to make the Playoffs. Kahne was 11th in points with two wins; Gordon was 13th in points with one win heading into the regular season finale.
- Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne are the two drivers that clinched the Wild Card in 2013 to make the Playoffs. Kahne was 12th in points with two wins; Newman was 14th in points with one win heading into regular season finale.
- Due to a rare instance in the final race of the regular season that resulted in penalties being issued; a 13th car (Jeff Gordon’s No. 24) was added to the Playoffs. It was the second time in the Playoff Era the number of entries was expanded.
Playoff Points System 3 (2014 – Present – Top 16 in on Wins or Points/Elimination Style)
In the third iteration of the Playoff championship format from 2014-Present – Only one driver outside the Playoff cutoff has raced their way into the Playoffs in the regular season finale through points or last-minute wins.
- From 2014 to 2018 – the drivers that won or were inside the top 16 that were expected to make the Playoffs did, no drivers raced their way into the Playoffs in the regular season finale on points or wins.
- Last season, heading into the regular season finale at Indianapolis, Ryan Newman was tied with Daniel Suarez for the 16th and final transfer position to the Playoffs. Newman finished eighth in the regular season finale to Suarez’s 11th, earning the final transfer spot into the postseason.
Breaking down the summer Daytona race history
Daytona International Speedway has hosted 146 NASCAR Cup Series races since the inaugural race in 1959: 62 have been 500 miles, 57 were 400 miles and four were 250 miles. There were also 23 qualifier races that were point races. But this weekend marks the first time the summer race will be the regular season finale.
| NASCAR Cup Series | |
| Active Daytona Summer Race Winners | |
| Race Winners (7) | Wins |
| Erik Jones | Saturday, July 7, 2018 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | Saturday, July 1, 2017 |
| Brad Keselowski | Saturday, July 2, 2016 |
| Aric Almirola | Sunday, July 6, 2014 |
| Jimmie Johnson | Saturday, July 6, 2013 |
| Kevin Harvick | Saturday, July 3, 2010 |
| Kyle Busch | Saturday, July 5, 2008 |
The 146 NASCAR Cup Series races at Daytona have produced 62 different pole winners and 65 different race winners, 29 drivers have multiple Cup Series wins at Daytona. NASCAR Hall of Famer Richard Petty leads the series in winsat Daytonawith 10 victories (Feb. 1964, Feb. 1966, Feb. 1971, Feb. 1973, Feb. 1974, July 1975, July 1977, Feb. 1979, Feb. 1981, July 1984). Jimmie Johnson(Feb. 2006 and 2013 sweep) and Denny Hamlin(Feb. 2016, Feb. 2019, Feb. 2020) lead all active series drivers in Daytona wins with three each. Of the 65 Cup Series Daytona winners, 39 of them have won the summer race and seven are entered in this weekend’s event – Erik Jones (2018), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2017), Brad Keselowski (2016), Aric Almirola (2014), Jimmie Johnson (2013), Kevin Harvick (2010) and Kyle Busch (2008).
NASCAR Hall of Famer David Pearson leads the series in summer race victories at Daytona with five wins (1961, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1978).
Five drivers have posted consecutive summer race wins at Daytona International Speedway: Fireball Roberts (1962-1963), A.J. Foyt (1964-1965), Cale Yarborough (1967-1968) David Pearson (1972 – 1974) and Tony Stewart (2005-2006).
The youngest Daytona summer race winner is Justin Haley (07/07/2019 – 20 years, 2 months, 9 days); all-time track record – Trevor Bayne (02/20/2011 – 20 years, 0 months, 1 day). The oldest Daytona summer race winner is Bobby Allison (07/04/1987 – 49 years, 7 months, 1 day); all-time track record – Bobby Allison (02/14/1988 – 50 years, 5 months, 23 days).
A total of 20 drivers have posted their first NASCAR Cup Series win at Daytona; 10 of the 20 drivers posted their first win in the summer race – the most recent was last season’s July race with winner Justin Haley and Spire Motorsports.
| NASCAR Cup Series Summer Daytona Race First-Time Winners | |||
| First-Time Race Winners | Date | Driver’s Age | |
| 1 | Justin Haley | Sunday, July 7, 2019 | 20 |
| 2 | Erik Jones | Saturday, July 7, 2018 | 22 |
| 3 | Aric Almirola | Sunday, July 6, 2014 | 30 |
| 4 | David Ragan | Saturday, July 2, 2011 | 25 |
| 5 | Greg Biffle | Saturday, July 5, 2003 | 33 |
| 6 | John Andretti | Saturday, July 5, 1997 | 34 |
| 7 | Jimmy Spencer | Saturday, July 2, 1994 | 37 |
| 8 | Greg Sacks | Thursday, July 4, 1985 | 32 |
| 9 | Sam McQuagg | Monday, July 4, 1966 | 28 |
| 10 | A.J. Foyt | Saturday, July 4, 1964 | 29 |
Playoff Bubble: Last opportunity to clinch a spot in the postseason
This weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway is the last opportunity for the drivers outside the Playoff cutoff to earn their spot in the postseason. A total of 13 drivers have already clinched their Playoff spot, leaving just three spots left for drivers to battle it out in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 this Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
Already clinched
The following 13 drivers have clinched a spot in the 16-driver postseason field: Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Aric Almirola, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon and Cole Custer.
Can clinch via points
If there is a new winner, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the 6th winless driver in the standings.
- Clint Bowyer: Would clinch with 3 points (so he could clinch as early as the end of Stage 1)
- Matt DiBenedetto: Would clinch with 51 points
- William Byron: Could only clinch with help
- Jimmie Johnson: Could only clinch with help
If there is a repeat winner, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the 7th winless driver in the standings. They would also clinch if there was a new winner among (Aric Almirola, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer, Matt DiBenedetto or William Byron) and being ahead of the 6th winless driver in the standings.
- Clint Bowyer: Would clinch regardless of finish
- Matt DiBenedetto: Would clinch with 47 points
- William Byron: Would clinch with 52 points
- Jimmie Johnson: Could only clinch with help
- Erik Jones: Could only clinch with help
Can clinch via win
The following drivers would clinch on their win alone:
- Clint Bowyer (Daytona average finish: 16.4)
- Matt DiBenedetto (21.0)
- William Byron (23.6)
- Jimmie Johnson (18.3)
- Erik Jones (18.4)
- Tyler Reddick (27.5)
- Christopher Bell (21.0)
- Chris Buescher (21.2)
- Darrell Wallace Jr. (16.5)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (18.8)
- Michael McDowell (20.7)
- Ryan Newman (18.1)
- John Hunter Nemechek (11.0)
- Ty Dillon (20.4)
- Matt Kenseth (19.0)
- Corey Lajoie (19.7)
- Ryan Preece (23.0)
The following driver could clinch with a win and some help clinching a Top 30 position:
- Daniel Suarez (Daytona average finish: 31.8)
Wood Brothers Racing’s driver Matt DiBenedetto is just nine points up on the Playoff cutoff heading into this weekend’s regular season finale.
“I am going to sit and hope and pray all week that we can just come out of there clean and make the Playoffs,” said DiBenedetto.
Last season in the summer race at Daytona, DiBenedetto put on a strong performance finishing eighth – his third top-10 finish at the famed 2.5-mile superspeedway.
Just below DiBenedetto in the standings are Hendrick Motorsport’s teammates William Byron in the 16th and final Playoff transfer position and seven-time series champion Jimmie Johnson in 17th, the first spot outside the postseason cutoff. The two are separated by just four points.
“Yeah, it’s going to be a really interesting race in Daytona,” said Jimmie Johnson. “We did the best that we could here over these two days, had two respectable results, closed the gap, but now it’s kind of in luck’s hands or in fate’s hands down in Daytona.”
William Byron has made five series starts at Daytona International Speedway posting one top-five finish – a runner-up in the July race last season. Byron has also won at Daytona in the NASCAR Xfinity Series (July 2017). Johnson brings much more experience to this weekend’s event. The veteran has made 37 series starts at Daytona posting three wins (Feb. 2006 and 2013 sweep), 12 top fives and 16 top 10s.
| 2020 Driver Playoff Outlook | |||||||
| Rank | Drivers | Points | Starts | Wins | Stage Wins | Playoff Pts | Pts from Cutoff |
| 1 | Kevin Harvick | 1041 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 42 | In On Wins |
| 2 | Denny Hamlin | 907 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 37 | |
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 881 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 21 | |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 836 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 14 | |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 809 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 16 | |
| 6 | Martin Truex Jr. | 845 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney | 818 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
| 8 | Alex Bowman | 662 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 9 | |
| 9 | Austin Dillon | 561 |
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