By Louis Addeo-Weiss
If the Detroit Tigers Miguel Cabrera were to stop playing today, you can make a case for him as a first ballot Hall of Famer. A quick glance over his numbers and accolades tell us why.
11-All-Star selections, 2 AL MVP’s, 1 Triple Crown, 7 Silver Sluggers, 4 Batting Titles, and a World Series Championship as a rookie with the Marlins in 2003.
Cabrera also owns a career OPS+ of 149 (third among active players; Joey Votto (153), Mike Trout (176)), a .316 batting average (the highest among all active players), and 466 home runs.
But the constant trips to the disabled-list seemed to have caught up with him, as he has seen a drastic drop off in his performance in recent seasons.
As of June 30th, since the start of 2017, Cabrera has posted a slash-line of .273/.351/.403 a 101 OPS+ (100 is considered league average), and just 0.1 total WAR, respectively. Cabrera’s OPS+ during that span is the lowest over a three-year period of his career. Second basemen DJ LeMahieu, known primarily for his defense rather than his power output, has an OPS+ of 100 during that span. Never thought we’d put Miguel Cabrera in the same offensive grouping as LeMahieu.
For context, from 2009-2016, Cabrera amassed 48.7 WAR, an average of 6.1 WAR per season. Between that time, Cabrera averaged .330/.412/.578, 34 home runs, 113 RBI, and a 166 OPS+.
Cabrera’s offensive fall from grace is only further exacerbated by his defensive limitations and mammoth contract the Tigers are still in line to pay.
Never known as a good defensive player though moving around earlier in his career, Cabrera owns a career -16.8 dWAR, and has cost his teams 129 runs on defense (DRS). Since the start of 2017, Cabrera has been worth -2.5 dWAR, while playing strictly first base.
According to USA Today, the team recently announced that Cabrera had reluctantly accepted a transition into a full-time role as the team’s designated hitter in a move to protect the slugger from further injury to his knees.
Starting in 2020, the Tigers owe Cabrera $124M over the next four seasons, the latter half of an 8-year/$240M deal he agreed to before the start of the 2014 season, going into effect next year. The deal has consistently drawn the ire of many in the baseball community since it’s announcement, with Cabrera’s recent performance doing nothing to assure general manager Al Avila his move was the right decision.
This year, while his power numbers have dropped off drastically, having not hit more than 16 home runs since 2017, Cabrera hasn’t slugged above .500 since the 2016 season, and hit just 7 home runs dating back to 2018.
Once known for his propensity to hit doubles in conjunction with his home run power, averaging 39 two-base hits per season from 2004-16, Cabrera’s injuries, which include a grade-three calf strain in 2015, a right-groin strain in 2017, two herniated discs in his neck the same year, and a right-hamstring strain and left bicep tear in 2018, Cabrera has essentially been playing hurt for parts of the last five seasons.
While it’s not for certain, a best-guess would lead some to believe the injuries Cabrera has suffered to his lower body have drastically cut into his power numbers.
Now, I don’t want this to be interpreted as a slight on Cabrera, because, like the title suggests, Cabrera is one of the game’s all-time greats.
Here’s some numbers to further justify this.
His adjusted OPS+ of 149 is 23rd all-time among right-handed hitters and 21st all-time.
Minus his defensive woes, Cabrera’s 79.3 oWAR is 38th all-time, and while many may criticize WAR as a ‘new age stat,’ it serves as baseball’s true calculator of measuring one player’s output against their contemporaries, so, for my money, this makes Cabrera the 38th best hitter in major league history.
His 44.7 WAR during his 7-year peak is above the 42.7 average among all hall of fame first basemen, this according to baseball-reference.
Whether he’s going 3-4 with 2 home runs and 5 RBI or 0-4 with 3 strikeouts, seeing Miguel Cabrera, a master at his craft with his tool of choice, the bat, is something akin to watching the Rolling Stones in 2019.
We’re witnessing history, and regardless of where we are in that history, we should appreciate them for all the great they have done and may still continue to do.
You need another reminder of how great he is? Mariano Rivera’s cutter, meet Miguel Cabrera’s bat.
