By Louis Addeo-Weiss
With confirmation coming through Tuesday of the Milwaukee Brewers inking outfielder Avisail Garcia to a 2-year/$20M deal, the Brewers do what they do best – bringing in players, who, while not exactly superstars, fit into their “support system” team.
Now, this isn’t a knock on Garcia, a player who had lofty expectations placed upon him from the outset of his career, particularly drawing frequent comparisons to Miguel Cabrera.
At 28 and entering the ninth season of his career, Garcia isn’t expected to blossom into the player many aspired he’d be.
Over 3,027 career plate appearances, Garcia owns a modest .273/.323/.451 slash line, with a respectable 104 OPS+ (league average is 100).
2017 has been Garcia’s peak at this point. Making the AL All-Star team that season as a member of the Chicago White Sox, Garcia posted career bests in batting average (.330), on-base (.380), slugging percentage (.506), and OPS+ (138), while also driving in a career-best 80 runs.
Following a rough 2018, Garcia joined the Tampa Bay Rays on a 1-year/$3.5M deal, Garcia put together another solid season, turning in a .332 on-base, while slugging .464, hitting a career-high 20 home runs, and stealing a career-best 10 bases.
For the year, Garcia was worth 2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), again, not indicative of a superstar, but that of a player who is a solid, everyday regular at the big league level.
Now in Milwaukee, Garcia will be taking his talents from Tropicana Field to Miller Park, a much friendlier playground for hitters.
According to baseball-reference’s ballpark factors, Tropicana has a multi-year PFR (Park Factor Rate) of 97. For context, anything below 100 is considered favorable to pitchers rather than hitters, whereas Miller Park has a PFR of 101.
Despite playing half of his games in a pitcher-friendly park, Garcia slashed .296/.359/.535 in Tropicana, which only gives pause to think his offensive numbers will look even better in Miller Park.
As to where he plays remains to be seen though. While primarily a right fielder, the Brewers already have a name entrenched there in 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich.
Of his 612 starts in the field, 568 have come in right field, though he does have 301.2 innings in center field, and 113 in left. Once regarded as a poor defender – which can be supported by -5.4 dWAR – Garcia was +3 in defensive runs saved in right field this season, which means he’ll fit well into a role in left field.
The only problem with this is what do you do with veteran Ryan Braun? Braun, while not the player he once was, still turned in a solid 2019, posting a slash line of .285/.343/.505, with 22 home runs, and a healthy 116 OPS+. That said, do you platoon him and Garcia in left? This could be a means of keeping both players fresh without having to sacrifice their production on the field – though we have seen Braun take some reps at first base in 2019 – so, it wouldn’t be foolish to think that could continue.
Using Baseball Savant’s Sprint Speed metric, Garcia average 28.8 ft/s, and though this metric takes into account base running, it’d be far more encouraging to give Garcia regular at-bats in left field rather than Braun, who averaged only 26.6 ft/s.
