By Greg Fuchs
The NFL draft is next week, and 5 quarterbacks are likely to be selected within the 1st ten picks. The 5 teams selecting those QBs are optimistic they will be getting an elite quarterback who will be the face of their franchise for the next 10+ seasons. While I wish all 5 teams and quarterbacks nothing but the best, history tells us that 1 or more will turn out to be a bust.
What is my definition of a bust? Someone selected in the top 10 picks of the draft who ends up having a terrible career. With emphasis on the word terrible.
For comparison purposes, who wasn’t a bust? The recently retired Alex Smith. While he may not have had the Hall of Fame career you hope for from the 1st overall pick in the draft, he did have a long and solid career. Jeff George is another #1 overall pick who jumps to mind. And while the 1990 draft pick certainly under achieved, he still managed to throw 154 touchdown passes. Hence not a bust. Not TERRIBLE!
So, who does meet the criteria? Well, here is my top 12 QB busts since the 1980 draft.
#1 – Ryan Leaf. When you talk draft busts regardless of position, Leaf is the 1st name many people think of. He was selected by the San Diego Chargers as the 2nd overall pick in the 1998 draft (Peyton Manning went 1st) and during his short 4-year career he threw only 14 touchdown passes to go with 36 interceptions. But what really puts him over the top as the #1 bust is that at the time of the draft NFL teams and experts were split on who the best QB was going to be – Manning or Leaf. Leaf had all the physical tools and was more mobile than Manning, so many people preferred him over Manning. The 2 careers couldn’t have gone more in different directions. Leaf also encountered a host of legal problems after his NFL career ended, which just adds to his bust legacy.
#2 – Art Schlichter. Selected 4th overall by the Colts in the 1982 draft, he played 4 years in the NFL and appeared in only 13 games with 6 starts. He had a career stat line of 3 TD passes and 11 interceptions. Sadly, he is better known for battling a severe gambling addiction that led to multiple arrests for theft and fraud. He remains in prison to this day.
#3 – JaMarcus Russell. If you had to build a physical protype of an NFL quarterback, Russell would have been the ideal model. At the time he was drafted he was 6’5”, 265 lbs. and ran a 4.7 40-yard dash. He also possessed a canon for an arm. He threw 28 TD passes as a senior at LSU which led to the Raiders selecting him with the 1st overall pick in the 2007 draft. None of that translated to success on the field, however, as he ended up playing only 3 seasons in the NFL with 18 TD passes and 23 interceptions.
#4 – Rich Campbell. Who? Exactly! Drafted 6th overall by Green Bay in the 1981 draft from the University of California, he never started a game in his 4-year career. He threw a total of 3 TD passes with 9 interceptions.
#5 – Akili Smith. Drafted 3rd overall in the 1999 draft by the Bengals out of Oregon, he only played 4 seasons in the NFL with 5 TD passes and 13 interceptions.
#6 – Andre Ware. The Heisman Trophy winner from the University of Houston was drafted 7th overall by Detroit in the 1990 draft. A short 4-year career resulted in 5 TD passes and 8 interceptions.
#7 – Todd Blackledge. He was drafted 7th overall in the 1983 draft by the Chiefs. He played 7 seasons with 29 touchdown passes and 38 interceptions to show for it. He gets bust bonus points, though, as he was a member of the greatest QB draft class in the history of the NFL. He was the 2nd QB chosen after John Elway went at #1. Also in this draft class were Hall of Famers Jim Kelly and Dan Marino plus Tony Eason and Ken O’Brien, both of whom had solid careers. Needless to say, Blackledge’s career was in stark contrast to that of Elway, Kelly and Marino.
#8 – Heath Shuler. Selected 3rd overall by Washington in the 1994 draft, he only played 5 seasons with 15 TD passes and 33 interceptions.
#9 – Matt Leinert. The USC All-American and 2004 Heisman Trophy winner was selected 10th by the Cardinals in the 2006 draft. He played 7 seasons in the NFL, but only tossed 15 TD passes to go with 21 interceptions.
#10 – Tim Couch. The Kentucky All-American was selected 1st overall by the Browns in the 1999 draft. He lasted only 5 seasons and threw for 64 touchdowns and 67 interceptions.
#11 – Kelly Stouffer. He was drafted 6th overall in the 1987 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals, but he never played a down for them as he held out in a contract dispute. After sitting out his entire rookie season, he was traded to Seattle for 3 draft picks. He played 5 seasons with only 7 TD passes and 19 interceptions.
#12 – David Klingler. Drafted 7th overall by the Bengals, he had a lackluster 6-year career with 16 TD passes and 22 interceptions.
In putting this list together, there was a host of other quarterbacks with lackluster NFL careers who were drafted in the 1st round who merited consideration. In chronological order, here are some of those.
1991 – Todd Marinovich was selected 24th overall by the Raiders. Better known for his off the field drug problems, he only played 3 seasons with 8 TD passes and 9 interceptions.
1993 – Notre Dame’s Rick Mirer was selected 2nd overall after Drew Bledsoe. He played for 7 teams over 12 years with 50 TD passes and 76 interceptions. I strongly considered him for the top 12 busts, but not a lot of players play 12 years in the NFL.
1997 – Jim Druckenmiller of Virginia Tech was selected 26th overall by the 49ers. He only played 3 years with 1 TD pass and 4 interceptions.
2002 – David Carr (65 TDs, 71 int’s) went #1 with Joey Harrington (79 TDs, 85 int’s) selected 3rd.
2003 – Byron Leftwich was drafted 7th overall by Jacksonville. He played 10 years with 58 TD passes and 42 interceptions. The highlight of his career, though, was being the Offensive Coordinator for the 2021 Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs.
2006 – Vince Young was drafted 3rd overall by the Titans after an All-American career at Texas. By coincidence, Young, along with Matt Leinert (#9 on the bust list), were opposing QBs in the 2006 NCAA championship game; one of the most exciting NCAA games ever. Young was the 2006 Offensive Rookie of the year, but otherwise had a very pedestrian 6-year career with 46 TD passes and 51 interceptions.
2011 – A trifecta with Jake Locker selected 8th, Blaine Gabbert 10th and Christian Ponder12th. I remember watching this draft and wondering how any of these guys were selected in the 1st round; never mind being selected this high. All 3 went on to have very ho-hum careers with a combined 115 TD passes with 105 interceptions.
2012 – Robert Griffin III was selected #2 overall after Andrew Luck. He was the Offensive Rookie of the Year with 20 TD passes and only 5 interceptions while also rushing for 815 yards and 7 touchdowns. But everything went south after that, partially due to injuries. He’s been the Ravens’ backup QB the past 3 seasons with only 43 career TD passes.
2013 – EJ Manuel drafted 16th by Buffalo. He played 5 seasons with 20 TD passes and 16 interceptions.
2014 – Johnny Manziel would probably be on many people’s top 10 draft bust lists, but he wasn’t selected until #22 in the 1st round, which many people in the NFL thought was much too high. He only played 2 seasons for the Bears with 7 TD passes and 7 interceptions.
2016 – Paxton Lynch was selected at 26th overall, but his career could be over after throwing for only 4 TD passes.
2017 – The Bears gave up 3 draft picks to move up 1 spot to draft Mitch Trubisky 2nd overall. The 1st four years of his career were so underwhelming that the Bears didn’t pick up his 5th year option and he signed with Buffalo this offseason as a free agent to be their backup QB. It also needs to be mentioned that he was selected before Patrick Mohomes and Deshaun Watson – Ugh! Who knows, perhaps he gets a 2nd chance somewhere along the line and proves himself to be a capable NFL starting quarterback.
2018 – How can a 2018 draft pick already be a bust? Well, when you are Josh Rosen and are the backup QB on your 4th team, you can be a bust. He has thrown 12 TD passes with 19 interceptions so far in his career. Like Trubisky, maybe he gets another chance sometime in the future to help justify him being drafted 10th overall.
Who amongst the 2021 QB draft class of Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones will end up being a bust? Who knows? Hopefully, none of them. But if I was a betting man, you can pretty much guarantee that at least one of them will be.
