The NFL coaching carousel continues to spin as 8 teams search for their
next head coach. And now it’s time to get ready for the next, and more
interesting, carousel – The Quarterback Carousel. Up to a third of the
teams in the NFL could be looking to make a change at the QB position
this offseason.
What makes the quarterback carousel so interesting is we’re talking
about the most critical position in all of sports. And if you want to make
it to the Super Bowl, you pretty much need an elite QB to lead you
there.
To make matters more challenging for the teams in need there aren’t
enough quality QBs available to satisfy all of their needs, so many a
team will likely be frustrated via staying with their current quarterback
or hoping a change of scenery will rejuvenate a currently under
achieving QB’s career.
Before we address the teams in need, let’s focus on the 3 elephants in
the room. Elephant #1 plays in Green Bay, but I don’t think anyone has
any idea what Aaron Rodgers is thinking. Does he stay or does he go?
Common sense says he stays in Green Bay, but he may want to pull a
Tom Brady and move to greener pastures.
His future could also depend on his favorite receiver, Davante Adams,
who is a free agent. It’s hard to believe either player would stay in
Packerland without the other. My gut says Rodgers stays in Green Bay,
but who knows. If he does leave, are the Packers comfortable with
Jordan Love moving forward?
Elephant #2 is Russell Wilson. Does he want to stay in Seattle or will he
push for a trade to a team with a better chance of winning a Super
Bowl? Or will the Seahawks decide it is time to rebuild and look to trade
him to a QB desperate team? This time my gut says he gets traded
based on a mutual decision by both Wilson and Seattle management.
Elephant #3 will definitely get traded. Well, maybe. Deshaun Watson’s
legal troubles will need to be resolved before he gets traded anywhere.
Supposedly 18 of the 22 woman who filed sexual assault complaints vs.
Watson are ready to settle, but that still leaves 4. Plus, the Houston
police department is still investigating the matter, which could result in
criminal charges.
Even if everything gets resolved in a timely manner, there is still the
matter of whether the NFL will suspend Watson and for how long. Or
maybe they consider Watson sitting out the 2021 season as his
suspension.
While many teams will covet Watson due to his age & elite ability,
Houston’s asking price has been high. 3-5 high draft picks and/or
starting caliber players. Interested teams will also have to deal with
Watson’s $35M salary cap hit not to mention the potential public
relations backlash of making an alleged sexual offender the face of their
franchise. I just spoke to my gut and he envisions Watson getting
traded before the NFL draft in late April.
So which teams need a QB upgrade? Let’s start in the AFC.
Miami, who has been at the forefront of the Deshaun Watson trade
rumors for months is up first. While QB Tua Tagovailoa has been
average at best over his first 2 seasons, he has been set up to fail. He
plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, has never had
a legitimate #1 running back and his receiving corps has been
constantly injured. Plus, he’s had to deal with multiple offensive
coordinators.
GM Chris Grier, who drafted him 5 th overall in the 2020 draft, appears
to be a supporter of Tua unlike recently fired coach Brian Flores.
Dolfans may not be crazy about it, but I think Tua gets one more year as
Grier surrounds him with more talent and a better coordinator.
One team that needs to add a quarterback is the Pittsburgh Steelers
considering the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger. Rumor has it that
they will draft a QB to compete with holdover QBs Mason Rudolph and
Dwayne Haskins vs. getting involved in a trade for one of the 3
elephants.
The Indianapolis Colts, based on the lack of supportive post season
comments from their GM and head coach about current QB Carson
Wentz, appear to be looking for a QB upgrade. Rodgers or Wilson
would be a perfect fit for a team with a solid Super Bowl potential
roster. Watson is not likely to be a trade option since the Texans &
Colts play in the same division.
Denver is another team with an exceptionally talented roster that has a
huge hole at QB. If Rodgers, Wilson or Watson were to end up in
Denver they automatically become a Super Bowl contender.
There have been rumors that the Las Vegas Raiders may be ready to
move on from Derek Carr. I don’t quite get it. While Carr will never be a
top 6 QB in the NFL, he’s a solid starter and one of the leaders of the
team. A team that made the playoffs this season in case you forgot.
Drafting a QB makes no sense for a playoff caliber team and none of
the free agent quarterbacks would be an upgrade over Carr, so my
infamous gut says the Raiders stay pat at QB.
Switching to the NFC, the Washington Football Team desperately
needs a new starting QB. Taylor Heinicke is a solid backup QB, but
leaves something to be desired as a starter. Washington is another
team with a talented roster who could immediately be in the playoff
chatter with the right QB. I think they will explore the
Rodgers/Wilson/Watson trade possibilities. They might also be
interested in Carr if he were to become available. Or they might draft a
QB, as they have the 11 th pick in the draft.
Staying in the NFC East, will the Giants or Eagles be looking to move on
from Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts? The Giants will have a new GM and
head coach, so who knows what they will think of Jones. The Giants
have 2 top 10 draft picks this year, which is probably too high for the
QBs available in this year’s draft. Do they use the picks to trade for
Rodgers, Wilson or Watson? Time will tell, but I think they at least
explore the trade possibilities.
As for Philly & Hurts, who knows. Personally, I don’t think Hurts’
throwing ability, or lack thereof, will ever lead the Eagles to the
promised land. Philly has three 1 st round draft picks, so they will have a
lot of options if they want to trade for or draft a new QB. I think they
will stay with Hurts for one more year, which is becoming a recurring
theme for many teams.
Could the Minnesota Vikings be ready to move on from Kirk Cousins?
The situation & talent level is very similar to that of Derek Carr in Las
Vegas. The Vikings will also have a new GM and head coach, so
anything is possible. Wilson or Watson would be a good fit. Obviously,
the Packers wouldn’t trade Rodgers to a division rival.
The Detroit Lions have the 2 nd pick in the draft, but that is way too early
to draft a QB this season. I’m not a huge fan of current quarterback
Jered Goff, but for a team with a lot of holes to fill I think they go with
Goff for one more season as he has experience and a good arm. I think
they will look for an upgrade in 2023 season.
The NFC South has Tom Brady and 3 teams looking for their next
quarterback. Carolina has a gaping hole at the QB position and for a
team that has the uber talented Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore on
the offensive side of the ball, it is a hole they must fill. Sam Darnold is
not the answer folks. The Panthers have the 6 th pick in the draft and
some mock drafts have them taking a QB. They have also been involved
in the Watson trade rumors.
The New Orleans Saints quickly found out how valuable it was having
an elite QB like Drew Brees at the helm for all these years. Taysom Hill
and Jameis Winston weren’t the answer in 2021. I think the Saints will
look for a veteran solution and Wilson would appear to be an excellent
fit.
The time as come for the Atlanta Falcons to find a successor to Matt
Ryan. That said, Ryan’s contract makes it virtually impossible for him to
be traded or released as he has $40M in dead cap money. Otherwise,
Ryan would be a good trade candidate for several teams looking for a
QB. The Falcons have the 8 th pick in the draft and could take a QB to sit
behind Ryan for a year.
Obviously, the Seahawks, if they were to trade Wilson, would need a
quarterback, but they don’t have a 1 st round draft pick this year, so they
would have to explore the free agency route to find a short-term
replacement or get a QB in return in a trade.
The 49ers have a QB decision to make, but they won’t be in the market
for a new quarterback. Their decision is do they move on from Jimmy
Garoppolo and hand the keys over to Trey Lance or keep JimmyG for
one more year. I say the keys go to Lance and Garoppolo hits the trade
market.
In summary, there is potentially 14 teams looking to make a change at
the QB position, although a few are likely to go the “one more year”
route. Of those 14 teams, I think 6 of the teams, the Steelers, Colts,
Broncos, Washington, Panthers and Saints must obtain a new
quarterback this offseason. So, what QBs are available to fill all of these
needs?
As far as the trade market goes, we have already mentioned the 3
elephants, but it’s possible Watson is the only one who gets traded.
Other possible trade candidates are Carr, Jones, Hurts, Tagovailoa,
Garoppolo, Cousins, Darnold, Wentz and Goff. But all those guys are
available for a reason with only a few of them possibly being more than
just a short-term gap filler.
Who is available on the free agent market? Not much is the real
answer, but if you want names here they are. Cam Newton, Mitch
Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick,
Teddy Bridgewater and Marcus Mariota. If a team is desperate and
wants to roll the dice on potential upside, I guess Trubisky, Winston and
Mariota would be the 3 most enticing options.
As far as the NFL draft goes, there are 3-6 QBs who have been
mentioned as possible as 1 st round picks. That said, the popular opinion
is that none are worthy of a top 10 pick and none of the 6 are as good
as any of the 5 quarterbacks who were selected in the 1 st round last
year when Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and
Mac Jones were taken.
The top quarterbacks available in this year’s draft are Kenny Pickett
from Pittsburgh, Malik Willis of Liberty, Matt Corral from Old Miss,
Carson Strong from Nevada, North Carolina’s Sam Howell and
Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder. All have potential, but none are foreseen
as day 1 starters in the NFL.
So, there you have it. 12 potential trade candidates, 8 free agent
options and 6 draftees. 26 players in total. But it’s more quantity than
quality. There’s probably not enough quality for the teams looking to
upgrade their QB position.
One name I haven’t mentioned yet who I think will get a lot of interest
is Ravens backup QB Tyler Huntley. He is a restricted free agent and
showed flashes filling in for Lamar Jackson this past season. He’s not a
finished product, but he’s mobile, has a strong arm and comes with a
lot of upside. Keep an eye on him.
So, hop on the quarterback carousel, as it will be an interesting ride!
