With the NFL draft less than a month away and with Miami having 4 of the top 50 picks in the draft, it begs the question of “What should the Dolphins do?” Before we get into some of the possibilities, the Fins, like most teams, have multiple holes in the roster that they need to address. Finding playmakers on offense is their biggest need, as the NFL is all about offense these days. You need to be able to score points … and lots of them to win consistently in today’s NFL, so they need to add a receiver and a legitimate #1 running back. And you can never have enough quality offensive linemen.
But you can’t totally ignore the defensive side of the ball and they have a huge need for pass rushers. They still might be able to sign a veteran free agent edge rusher, but even if they do, they still need to draft a pass rusher in the 1st 2 rounds of the draft.
After their trades a couple of weeks ago with the 49ers and the Eagles, the Dolphins first pick is at #6. This draft has 4 elite receivers (Tight-end Kyle Pitts and wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase, Devonta Smith & Jaylen Waddle) and this is the spot to grab one of them. Which ones will be available is to be determined.
The first 3 picks in the draft will be quarterbacks. That is pretty much a given. Atlanta at #4 could take a QB or trade the pick to a team that needs a QB or keep the pick to select a non-QB. Assuming they keep the pick, I think they go with the highest rated player on the board, Florida TE Kyle Pitts. It gives QB Matt Ryan one more weapon and drafting a QB doesn’t make sense to me given all the dead cap money left on Ryan’s contract, which will restrict their ability to trade or release him for the next 2 seasons.
The Bengals have the 5th pick and they will go one of 3 ways. If Pitts is still on the board, I think they grab him to give 2nd year QB Joe Burrow another receiving weapon. If Pitts isn’t available, then taking a tackle like Penei Sewell to help protect Burrow is the way to go. Chase is also an option as they may feel they can draft a good O-lineman with their 2nd round pick.
At #6, I think the Fins would take Pitts if he were still available, but I don’t think he will be. TE’s like Pitts don’t come around too often plus current starting TE Mike Gesicki is a free agent after this season, so I think it would make more sense to take him over one of the WRs. So, if Pitts is gone, who do you take? You can’t go wrong with any of the 3 WRs, as they are all elite prospects. Chase appears to be the consensus top wide receiver in the draft, but the player I like is Waddle. His speed and ability to run after the catch remind me of Tyreek Hill, who is the definition of the type of playmaker that Miami needs to add.
The Dolphins next pick is at #18 and this is where GM Chris Grier will earn his money. At this point in the draft, they will likely select a running back or a pass rusher. The 3 top RBs in the draft are Najee Harris, Travis Etienne and Javonte Williams and while all 3 should still be available at this point in the draft, Harris is the only one worthy of being selected at this point in the draft. Harris is a great combination of speed & power plus he is a good receiver.
The 3 top pass rushers in the draft are Kwity Paye, Gregory Rousseau and Jaelan Phillips. At the 18th spot, I wouldn’t be surprised if 1 or 2 of them are already off the board, although it’s possible all 3 of them could still be available.
So, do you go RB or pass rusher? Here is my take. As a redshirt freshman in 2019, Rousseau had a monster season with 15.5 sacks. He opted out of the 2020 season for Covid reasons, but had he played, there is little doubt in my mind that he would have had another huge season and would be viewed like Chase Young was last season or the Bosa brothers a few years before that. Those guys were all top 3 picks. If you can get talent like that with the 18th pick you take him.
If Rousseau isn’t available, I would select Harris, but with one caveat. Miami must view Harris as a true bell-cow running back. If they envision him as being part of a running back by committee along with Myles Gaskin and Malcom Brown, don’t take him in the 1st round. There is also the chance Etienne or Williams could be available when they pick in the 2nd round, hence another reason to go pass rusher.
If Rousseau is off the board and they don’t envision Harris as a bell-cow, then I go with Phillips.
Their next pick is 36th overall with the 4th pick in the 2nd round. If they didn’t take Harris in the 1st round, then you definitely select a RB here. I prefer Williams over Etienne, but would gladly take either. That said, it’s conceivable that all 3 are off the board before Miami picks at #36 as teams like Pittsburgh, Arizona, the Jets or Atlanta could take RBs. I would be severely disappointed as a Fins fan if that is the way it played out and that is the risk you take by not selecting Harris at #18.
If they took Harris at #18, then take the best pass rusher left on the board. If they didn’t take Harris in the 1st round and Etienne & Williams aren’t available, take the best player available. Perhaps another pass rusher or an O-lineman, linebacker or defensive back.
Miami’s next pick is at #50. Assuming they grabbed a receiver, a pass rusher and a RB with their 1st 3 picks, I take the best offensive lineman left on the board. In my opinion, you can never have enough quality O-linemen and after QB it is the most important part of the team. Center Matt Skura was just signed, but only to a 1-year deal, so he could be a one & done. Plus, Ereck Flowers and Jesse Davis could be released for salary cap purposes after the 2021 season.
With their 3rd round pick, if for some reason they haven’t drafted a RB by now, then select either Michael Carter from North Carolina or Trey Sermon from Ohio St. If they don’t need a RB, then just select the best player left on the board as they could use depth at most positions. Some intriguing local options could be Florida QB Kyle Trask or Miami TE Brevin Jordan.
As for the rest of the draft, the Dolphins don’t have a pick in the 4th and 6th rounds, but do have a 5th round pick and 2 picks in the 7th round. This late in the draft, going with the best player available is the way to go.
The NFL draft will be held on April 29-May 1 and between now & then there will undoubtedly be a lot of rumors and the potential for some pre-draft day trades as teams look to move up or down in the draft. This could obviously affect what the Dolphins ultimately do in the draft, so stay tuned!
