By Greg Fuchs
As the old axiom goes, if you don’t learn from history, you are bound to
repeat it. Hence, NFL General Managers who are thinking of selecting a
quarterback in the draft may want to spend some time reading the NFL
draft history books over the next few weeks before making their
selections.
I say this because the top of this year’s draft is supposed to be QB
heavy. Jacksonville, the New York Jets and San Francisco are going to
draft QBs with the first 3 picks in the draft with the 4th pick also possibly
being a QB.
What is wrong with that you ask? Well, let’s see how selecting a
quarterback in the top 5 has worked out in recent drafts.
First of all, let’s look at the top 7 QBs in the NFL right now and see
where they were selected.
Tom Brady – The 7-time Super Bowl champ was drafted in the 6th
round.
Patrick Mohomes – 10th pick in the 1st round.
Aaron Rodgers – 24th pick in the 1st round.
Russell Wilson – A 3rd round pick.
Josh Allen – 7th pick in the 1st round.
Deshaun Watson – 12th pick in the 1st round
Dak Prescott – A 4th round pick.
Of the top 7 QBs three weren’t even selected in the 1st round and of the
4 that were, none were picked higher than 7th .
Need more proof of the folly of selecting a QB in the top 5? Let’s look at
the 2015 draft where Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were the top
2 picks. Both have since been traded and neither started for their
current team in 2020.
No reason to stop there. Let’s look at the 2016 draft where the Rams
and Eagles both gave up multiple draft picks to move into the top 2
spots to select Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. The careers for both have
been a bit spotty so far, so much so that both were traded this
offseason.
You want even more proof? Let’s look at the 2018 draft where 5 QBs
went in the 1st round. Baker Mayfield went 1st overall and so far, he has
been just OK. Probably a middle of the pack QB; not exactly what you
want from the 1st overall pick.
The Jets selected Sam Darnold at #3. After 3 disappointing seasons they
traded him a few weeks ago to Carolina. The aforementioned Josh Allen
went 7th , so kudos to the Bills as he had a breakout, MVP like season in
2020.
Unfortunately, the other Josh (Rosen) was selected 10th overall and he’s
now a backup QB playing for his 4th team. Lamar Jackson was the 5th
quarterback chosen in the 2018 draft at #32. He was the league MVP in
2019, but came back to Earth a bit in 2020. His passing accuracy is still
in question.
In summary, we just reviewed 16 QBs taken in recent drafts and not
one selected in the top 5 has lived up to their expectations. History says
you are better off using a 10th pick or later in the 1st round or not using a
1st round pick at all if you want to get an elite QB.
Will that stop teams from using a top 5 pick on a QB in the draft this
year? No!
Should history stop them from using a top 5 pick on a quarterback?
Once again, No!
Because if a team wants to get an upper echelon QB, they are in all
likelihood going to have to use a high draft pick to get one. Nothing
ventured, nothing gained, hence NFL GMs have to roll the dice. Even
though there is more likelihood of those dice coming up snake-eyes.
Lastly, and to be fair, QBs have been selected with the #1 overall pick
the past 2 drafts and the careers of Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow are
off to a promising start. That should give the Jaguars, Jets and 49ers
some reason to be hopeful taking QBs with the 1st three picks in the
2021 draft.
