BY Louis Addeo-Weiss
The upcoming 2020 Hall of Fame induction ceremony only has one real guarantee to be there – longtime New York Yankees’ shortstop Derek Jeter, who could become just the second player, along with former teammate Mariano Rivera, to be elected unanimously.
Other names on this list, most notably two who have been under prolonged speculation of PED use, left fielder Barry Bonds and pitcher Roger Clemens, look to get above the 60%-mark as they enter their 8th of 10 years on the ballot.
Pitcher Curt Schilling, who, along with former teammate and first-ballot elected Randy Johnson, beat Jeter, Clemens, and Rivera in the 2001 World Series while the two were members of the Arizona Diamondbacks, has yet to be elected due to controversies surrounding his outspoken political views.
Schilling, three-time World Series champion, owner of 79.5 WAR (avg. for HOF staters being 73.2), according to baseball-reference, and 3116 strikeouts, is, too, on the ballot for the 8th time, receiving 60.9% in 2018.
But of the many notables on this list, with others including Andruw Jones, Garry Sheffield, Omar Vizquel, Scott Rolen (who we may discuss sometime in the near future), and Manny Ramirez, one man not mentioned has a chance to join Jeter on stage this July, as he may finally earn his plaque in Cooperstown.
The man in question – Larry Kenneth Robert Walker.
While the odds may be against him, considering this is his 10th and final year on the ballot, and noting the fact that he has never received higher than 54.6% of the vote (2019), a deeper look at his peripherals paints the picture of someone who should have been in long, long ago.
For the sake of this piece, the conversation surrounding the ‘Coors effect’ will be ignored, as this is merely a statistical justification for Walker’s place in baseball history.
Total WAR is as good a place as any to start when examining Walker’s candidacy, and while it may only appear to be a slight advantage, Walker’s 72.7 WAR edges out Jeter’s 72.4.
However, the difference between Jeter’s career and Walker’s merely comes down to duration – Jeter played in 2747 games, while Walker appeared in just 1988.
This presents another problem when discussing Walker, that being his extensive injury history. Yes, while he did only average 117 games per season over the course of his 17-year career, this number still falls in line with another Hall of Famer player, that being Barry Larkin.
Larkin, who played for parts of 19 seasons, averaged just 115 games per season while posting an OPS+ of just 116, similar to that of position-mate Jeter’s 115 OPS+.
Referring back to total WAR, Larkin amassed 70.4 WAR during his career, averaging out to 5.2 WAR/162. As for Walker, his WAR/162 averaged out to 5.9, nearly a full-win better than Larkin, and almost two wins higher than Jeter’s 4.3.
Granted, Walker spent the majority of his career as a right fielder, a position known for its offensive prowess. Of players who spent a majority of their careers in right field, Walker’s 72.7 WAR ranks 11th, just behind Paul Wanner’s 72.8.
Now, with noting that WAR is context-based relative to respective eras and position, the case for Walker, in relation to Jeter and Larkin, should only be strengthened by the fact that the two shortstops rank 10th and 12th in WAR respectively according to Jay Jaffee’s JAWS method of talent evaluation.
Referring back to OPS+, Walker’s mark of 141 ranks first among players with at least 80% of their games in right field. Of the other four players in the top 5, three of them Wanner (134), Roberto Clemente (130), and Tony Gwynn (132) are enshrined in Cooperstown.
On the subject of Gwynn, a player who was a callback to the days of the dead-ball era, or, for more contemporary comparisons, the likes of Rod Carew, his career 69.2 WAR is below Walker’s aforementioned total of 72.7. And while Gwynn is one of the most respected and beloved players the game has ever seen, to say he was better than Walker would be an injustice to what the numbers illustrate.
Gwynn’s slash line of .338/.388/.459, while more than respectable, pales in comparison to Walker’s .313/.400/.565, and reflects what made Walker such a complete offensive player, possessing the ability to hit for average, exude plate discipline, and hit for power.
A transcript of the tweet below by Ryan M. Spaeder at the @aceofspaeder, should only further Walker’s HOF narrative.
“Hall of Famers
Mize – .312 BA
DiMaggio – .398 OBP
Aaron – .555 SLG
Stargell – 3,247 TOB
Griffey Jr. – 136 OPS+
Banks – 67.5 rWAR
Gwynn – 65.0 fWAR
Jackson – 139 wRC+
Mays – .409 wOBA
Larry Walker
.313 BA
.400 OBP
.565 SLG
3,211 TOB
141 OPS+
72.7 rWAR
68.7 fWAR”
140 wRC+
.412 wOBA
This doesn’t take away from the fact that Gwynn won 8 batting titles over the course of his career, but let us not ignore the fact that Walker won three of his own, including the NL MVP in 1997 when he hit .366 with a league-leading .452 on-base percentage, .720 slugging percentage, 1.172 OPS, and 409 total bases, the latter three of which lead all of baseball that season.
In fact, Walker’s 409 total bases that season was one of 29 such occurrences in baseball history where a hitter amassed at least 400 total bases in a single season.
The defensive side is one aspect of Walker’s game that too favors the Canadian-born slugger.
While you may not see that based on just a career dWAR of 2.0, the metric Rtot (Total Fielding Runs Above Average) and the seven gold gloves work in Walker’s favor, as Walker was good for an Rtot of 100 in right field.
The point of this piece is to justify why Walker belongs in Cooperstown, and while, if he were to be elected on his final year of eligibility, one wouldn’t consider him among the upper-echelon of Cooperstown-inductees, this doesn’t detract from the fact that Larry Walker is, and should be, a Hall of Famer.
