One of the side benefits of the start of training camp in the NFL is that it means the start of the fantasy football season is also right around the corner. If you are fan of fantasy football your league’s draft is probably still a few weeks away, so what better time to look at the fantasy implications for the players who wear the aqua & orange of the Miami Dolphins.
Quarterback – There may be no quarterback in the NFL who has more uncertainty surrounding him in 2021 than Tua Tagovailoa. After a mediocre rookie season, people are questioning Tua’s arm strength, accuracy, pocket presence and his ability to read defenses. As a result, he is not a hot commodity in fantasy right now.
He could be a good option to roll the dice with, though, if you believe in drafting 2 QBs, as he has an improved receiving core and perhaps, he shows significant growth in year 2. Personally, I will be avoiding him on fantasy draft day.
Wide Receivers – In my opinion, if they can stay healthy, I believe the Dolphins have one of the best groups of wide-outs in the NFL. Devante Parker, Will Fuller, Jaylen Waddle, Preston Williams and Albert Wilson are all legitimate starting WRs. But does that make any of them fantasy relevant?
The key to fantasy relevance is volume and I have severe doubts if any of the wide receivers will garner enough targets to be anything more than a WR3 in fantasy. With running backs, the last thing a fantasy owner wants to hear is that a team is going with the RBBC (running back by committee) approach, as it means the touches will be divvied up amongst several RBs.
I think the same thing will happen with the Miami WRs this season. There is just too many good ones on the roster and Miami will likely spread the ball around. As such, I will be avoiding the Dolphins wide-outs for fantasy (at least as a WR1,2 or 3), although I love them as a group in real football.
Now, could one of them have a breakout season? Sure! Parker certainly has the talent & experience, but he always has injury issues. Fuller has tremendous speed and is a legitimate deep threat, but he also has an injury history, and I just don’t envision him as someone who will lead the Fins in targets. If I had to roll the dice on any of the receivers I would go with Waddle. Even though he is a rookie, he could see a lot of targets out of the slot and with his speed and running after the catch ability, he is always a threat for a big play every time he touches the ball.
Running Backs – Myles Gaskin may not be one of the top ranked RBs in the league, but he’s talented and the thing I really like about him is that I think he will get a lot of touches. Although Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed will definitely get some touches, I don’t envision Miami using a true RBBC approach. I envision Gaskin getting 12-15 carries a game plus 3-5 receptions in the pass game. I may be more bullish on Gaskin than some, but I think he can be a legitimate RB2 that you can get in the 4th or 5th round. If you get him as your RB3, consider that a steal. He is a player I am targeting in all drafts.
Tight End – Mike Gesicki possess size, talent, good hands and he is always good for several highlight real plays. In 2020 he was fourth in receiving yards for TEs. All that said, I am avoiding him in fantasy for two reasons.
One reason is consistency or lack there-of. He had over 40% of his receptions and yards in three games last season, which means for the other thirteen games he brought little to the fantasy table.
Reason #2 I’m avoiding Gesicki is that Miami had a lot of injuries to its wide receiver core in 2020, hence Miami turned their attention in the pass game more towards the TE position. With hopefully a healthier 2021 for the WRs plus the addition of play makers Fuller & Waddle, I think a lot of the passes thrown to TEs last season will be going to the WRs this year.
At best I envision Gesicki as a low end TE1, so I will likely be avoiding him in my drafts.
DST – I put more fantasy value in defenses and special teams than many people in the fantasy world do. Many people use one of their last two picks on a DST, but I like to pick up one of the better DSTs around the 10th round, as a good DST has led me to many weekly wins.
For the 2021 fantasy season, there are many DSTs I like and one of the those is Miami’s. In 2020 the Fins defense led the league in turnovers, was fifth in fewest points allowed and was 10th in sacks. The defense scoring a touchdown is a bit of crapshoot, but I like Miami’s chances given the turnovers they are likely to generate.
And don’t forget about special teams. Whether it’s Waddle or Jakeem Grant returning kicks & punts, I like Miami’s chances of garnering a TD or two more than other teams.
Miami’s DST ranked sixth in fantasy last year and they are definitely a DST I will be focusing on in this year’s draft.
Summary – I like the 2021 edition of the Dolphins in the real football world and I think they will make the playoffs, but that doesn’t necessarily correlate to success in fantasy. As noted above, I’m not very bullish on the fantasy value of Miami’s passing game, but I think Gaskin and their DST can bring great fantasy value.
Rule #1 in fantasy is don’t draft with your heart, so only draft Miami players at the proper point in the draft. And between now and your draft day, do a lot of mock drafts and pay close attention to the injury list, as there will be several in the upcoming weeks.
Good luck with your fantasy drafts Dolfans!
