Based on how Miami has played the past 5 games, the Dolphins are a playoff caliber team. Now, will they make the playoffs? Well, that is a different question as losing 6 of your first 7 games isn’t a good formula for making the playoffs.
If the Dolphins were to run the table the rest of the way with victories over the Jets, Saints, Titans and Patriots they would finish the year 10-7, which should put them in the AFC playoffs. But it’s no guarantee as they learned last season when a 10-6 record had them on the outside looking in for the 2020 playoffs.
Plus winning their final 4 games is easier said than done, as Tennessee and New England are 2 teams that are odds on favorites to win their divisions. Can they make the playoffs if they win 3 of 4 games to finish at 9-8? Normally I would say no, but this season there is a bunch of teams tightly packed fighting for the playoffs, so it’s a possibility.
Assuming the Patriots, Titans & Chiefs win their divisions that leaves 10 teams battling for the remaining four playoff spots. There are 10 teams with 6, 7 or 8 wins and one of those teams will win the AFC North, which means the Fins are actually battling 9 teams for the 3 wild card spots.
The 10 teams battling the Dolphins for the playoffs along with their record and remaining schedule are:
Chargers 8-5; Chiefs, Texans, Broncos & Raiders
Ravens 8-5; Packers, Bengals, Rams & Steelers
Bills 7-6; Panthers, Patriots, Falcons & Jets
Browns 7-6; Raiders, Packers, Steelers, & Bengals
Bengals 7-6; Broncos, Ravens, Chiefs & Browns
Colts 7-6; Patriots, Cardinals, Raiders & Jaguars
Broncos 7-6; Bengals, Raiders, Chargers & Chiefs
Dolphins 6-7; Jets, Saints, Titans & Patriots
Raiders 6-7; Browns, Broncos, Colts & Chargers
Steelers 6-6-1; Titans, Chiefs, Browns & Ravens
In reviewing the above records and schedules, a few things pop out to me. One, with 8 wins the Chargers already have a leg up on everyone and other than this week’s game vs. Kansas City, their other 3 games are very winnable, hence I think they will snare one of the playoff spots.
Two, Miami doesn’t play any games vs. the other playoff contenders, therefore if they win a game, they don’t get the advantage of pinning a loss against a fellow potential playoff team.
Three, the 4 AFC North teams have their work cut out for them, as not only are they going to beat each other up by playing a bunch of games against each other, but each of the 4 teams also has a game vs. the Packers or Chiefs. It’s possible that only the division winner makes the playoffs, which would benefit Miami.
Four, on paper Buffalo is one of the best teams on this list, but they have won only 1 game this season vs. a team with a record above .500. But as luck would have it, 3 of their final 4 games are against sub .500 teams, so they are likely to finish with at least 10 wins, which should get them into the playoffs.
If the Chargers and Bills do indeed make the playoffs, that means Miami is fighting for the final playoff spot against 7 other teams, so it will be an uphill battle. Sweeping their final 4 games will be their best way to the playoffs.
So, what does Miami need to do to win their remaining games? First of all, their defense needs to continue to play at the high level they have been over the past 5 games. Stop the run, put pressure on the quarterback and force some turnovers. Over their 5-game winning streak they have given up only 55 points. If they can hold their upcoming opponents to an 11-point average, I like their chances.
But the offense will also need to amp up their performance and that responsibility will fall primarily upon the offensive line and Miami’s play callers. The O-line must start opening up some holes for the running game so they can average at least 3.5-4.0 yards per carry, which is still below the league average.
And while quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the pass game has been very efficient of late, they need to start taking more shots down field. Miami has the receivers to extend the field with Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson and Mike Gesicki, so the offensive line needs to give Tua the time to throw deeper passes. And Miami’s co-offensive coordinators need to start calling these deeper pass plays, as Miami won’t be able to dink & dunk its way to 4 straight wins.
But as the cliché goes, you need to play the games one at a time. Miami can’t win 4 games this week. But what they can do is beat the Jets, so they can check off the 1st playoff box. In today’s NFL you can’t underestimate any of your opponents, so Miami needs to treat this game as a playoff game by bringing their A game.
