By Louis Addeo-Weiss
September 18th saw Houston Astros’ pitcher Gerrit Cole become just the 18th pitcher since the start of baseball’s modern era in 1901 to strikeout 300 batters in a season, an accomplishment reflective of dominance and durability.
For Cole, who is set to hit free agency following the conclusion of the 2019 season, he has put himself in great shape for a major payday with the season he has had, but in an era where the sport collectively strikes out nearly 23% of the time, as modern pitching’s emphasis on the high fastball has seen strikeout numbers skyrocket to record numbers, Cole’s accomplishment won’t be enough to earn himself pitching’s highest honor, the Cy Young Award.
Since the start of baseball’s Cy Young-era, beginning in 1956 when the award was first introduced, of the 32 individual cases of pitchers striking out 300 batters in a season, 17 of them have resulted in the pitcher winning the league’s Cy Young Award, and of those 17 cases, the award was won by a total of just 6 different pitchers (Koufax, Blue, Carlton, Scott, P. Martinez, and R. Johnson).
Of the three men who did it prior to Cole, Clayton Kershaw (301, 2015), Chris Sale (308, 2017), and Max Scherzer (300, 2018), neither came away victorious in the Cy Young vote in their respective leagues, with Sale and Scherzer finishing second respectively each year.
And that second place finish, which Cole is most likely slated to place, is justified by another flame-throwing right-hander.
It is his teammate, the renaissance man himself, Justin Verlander, who many feel will wind up taking home the hardware when the award for both leagues is announced on November 13th.
A look at the peripheral numbers backs Verlander’s case, when stacked against Cole, to win his second AL Cy Young Award.
The main cog in the argument against Cole comes via Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and according to baseball-reference’s player comparison tool, Verlander has outpaced Cole in WAR 7.7-6.1.
For Kershaw, who posted a 7.4 WAR in his 300-strikeout year of 2015, metrics such as this prevented him from securing a third consecutive NL Cy Young as teammate Zack Greinkie’s 9.3 and eventual winner Jake Arrieta’s 8.3 WAR’s further outlined that pitching isn’t merely striking out offenses at will.
But the metrics in favor of Verlander don’t end at just the mere mention of WAR.
Traditional metrics such as ERA favor Verlander to Cole, 2.53–2.61, as well as innings pitched do, where Verlander has thrown 17 more innings than Cole, which further highlights the superior ERA, 217 to Cole’s 200.1.
Further expanding on the subject of ERA, Verlander’s 181 ERA+ edges out Cole’s 176.
Verlander’s advantage in innings pitched is further reflected by the “Plays” metric, as used by baseball-reference.
Across his 2019 season, Verlander has been apart of 840 plays that have contributed to his overall WPA (Win Probability Added), which he also edges Cole out in 5.6-4.1.
But as impressive as these numbers are, it is Verlander’s reluctance in allowing baserunners that has seen comparisons drawn between peak-Pedro Martinez.
Limiting baserunners to just a .172 batting average all season, should this number hold through his last start, slated for Saturday, September 28th, that mark would be the fourth lowest in major league history, trailing only Nolan Ryan (.171, 1972), Luis Tiant (.168, 1968), and the aforementioned Pedro Martinez, whose 2000 season where he limited opposing hitters to a .167 batting average, ranks as the best such mark in baseball history.
Verlander’s .220 opponent on-base-percentage trails only Pedro’s .213 mark from that 2000 season as the second best in history, also reflecting his propensity for coming at hitters, as signified by just 42 walks across those 217 innings. For comparison, Cole has walked 46 over his 200 innings.
WHIP, also known as Walks, Hits, Innings Pitched, takes into account how much traction a pitcher allows on the base paths during his time on the mound.
Pitcher’s who posts WHIP’s in the ballpark of 1-1.10 are considered among the upper-echelon of hurlers in the sport, such as Clayton Kershaw whose 1.009 WHIP is the best such mark among all active-pitchers.
Cole, whose 0.908 WHIP would be tremendous in any era, it merely isn’t enough in the context of the season Verlander has had, as his 0.806 WHIP ranks as the sixth best mark in history, which, as you may have guessed, the best mark belongs to Martinez, whose 2000 season saw him post a 0.74 WHIP.
As much as there sits a myriad of means to tell you why Verlander deserves the Cy Young over Cole, as was noted at the outset of this piece, strikeouts have become a modern epidemic across baseball, and given that front offices are having hitters sell-out for the sake of power, it only appears the problem will continue to worsen.
What makes Pedro Martinez’s 313 strikeouts (37.5% of BF) in 1999 impressive is the fact that the sport as a whole was only striking out 16.4% of the time, where Cole’s 39.1% appears blemished to a league eroded with strike-three’s.
Pedro struck out batters more than twice the league rate (228.7%), whereas Cole lags behind at 171.5%, still impressive, but discounted in the context of the era.
