We are only three weeks into the NFL season and some weirdly bemusing stuff is happening in the National Football League. And we’re not even talking about butt punts, quarterbacks strolling out the back of the end zone and outrageous one-mitted catches.
Forgive us here, for things are about to get a little stat-heavy, partly because the numbers are really darn unusual, and mostly because I felt stupid when I looked at my son’s ninth-grade algebra homework last week and football math is math I can comprehend.
With a single exception — yes, we’re looking at you, Las Vegas Raiders — every team has avoided the ignominy of beginning the season with a dour and derisory record of 0-3. We will get deeper into all this soon, but that’s not normal.
On the flip side, there’s been no spate of serial winning either, and the tiny list of teams to remain perfect (the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants and Miami Dolphins) form such an unlikely trio that you’re forgiven for questioning whether the football gods just inadvertently inhaled some of Aaron Rodgers‘ South American medicine.
Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith dominate in Eagles’ victory vs. Commanders
Jalen Hurts threw for three touchdowns and 340 yards while DeVonta Smith had one touchdown and 169 receiving yards in the victory. The Philadelphia Eagles held the Commanders to just 240 yards.
So, what’s going on and why is no one winning — or losing — very much? A bunch of ties?
Nope, that’s not it. It’s just parity. Parity to an extreme level. Indeed, so much even-handedness that it makes the collective results of the campaign’s early jousts feel like a drastic numerical outlier, which they are.
The average number of teams to start a season 3-0 and give their fans the kind of start they dreamed about all summer is just under five, depending on how far back you go. In both the 2019 and 2020 seasons, seven teams remained perfect as the end of September loomed.
Given that this year’s number of 3-0 squads will be just two if the Giants lose to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday night, the current situation is markedly different from what we are used to.
Not just numbers-wise, but identity-wise. For it is not Rodgers or Tom Brady or Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes spearheading the perfect-record brigade.
“The four best quarterbacks in football and nobody can score 20 points?” said FS1’s Craig Carton on “The Carton Show,” referring to last weekend’s struggles for each member of that elite foursome. “What are they, the Jets quarterback?”
Instead, it is Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa, all asking if we wouldn’t mind setting aside our tilted preconceptions about their abilities, while averting defeat.
When the games come around thick and fast and we are still in the mode of being simply grateful football is back, overarching trends sometimes slip past us with little notice.
“Say what?” moments like those belonging to Thomas Morstead and Jimmy Garoppolo, and Josh Allen’s duck throw and Tampa Bay’s delay-of-game muddle and Matt Ryan’s sizzling drive to beat Kansas City, are always going to command attention compared to an anomaly that really just leaves us with almost every team being 2-1 or 1-2.
The nature of the 2022 results has more than just a little quirk, though. Going into the Cowboys/Giants clash, the NFC East is making moves to shed its long-held nickname of the NFC Least, finding itself in the unusual position of being the mathematically strongest division in the league. Its teams are 7-3, in case you were wondering, and have won six of eight games against teams from outside the division.
On the other side of the country, the AFC West is just a few weeks removed from being touted as football’s strongest grouping, yet finds itself with a paltry 5-7 record that was propped up by the Denver Broncos‘ survival act against San Francisco late Sunday. The division’s bottom rung is occupied by the so-far uninspiring Raiders, incapable of generating any initial momentum under Josh McDaniels’ stewardship.
The world of sports is supposed to be random, and when things line up too neatly we begin to wonder what the heck is going on. There is no simple explanation here, although ideas such as a small sample size, scheduling, more equality in the league, or just a bunch of coincidences working in tandem all have merit.
It is only Week 3 and there is plenty of time for thriving teams to stumble and strugglers to revive. But there is also compelling evidence as to why getting out of the blocks quickly is just a really good idea. Going 3-0 confers a historical 75% chance of seeing postseason action, going back to 1970. As for 0-3, that drops to a paltry 2.5%.
We don’t really need to know why this year’s momentum has been so jerky, unless it carries on all season and leads to a whole bunch of 9-8 divisional champions, but there are overwhelming probability laws working against that.
In truth, there is a lot to like about parity, especially at this stage, when everyone wants to maintain the illusion that their favored team still has a shot for as long as possible.
“The NFL wants parity,” Rodgers said last week. “That’s why the schedule is set up the way it is. I think it’s good for the league, because they want to see a turnover of teams.”
We can’t really trot out old clichés, like parity being a “win-win” or that every team wins, because it isn’t, and they don’t. But at least when things break like this, everyone loses, so it lessens the sting — and no one loses all the time.
Except the Raiders, of course: obviously not the first 0-3 team we’ve ever encountered, but definitely, as of now, the loneliest.
