If you talk the talk, you’d better be able to walk the walk; Padres Pitcher Chris Paddack is doing exactly that and more in what is already shaping up to be a historic rookie season.
By Louis Addeo-Weiss
On Monday night, the New York Mets played their first of a three-game series against the upstart San Diego Padres. On the mound for New York was Jacob DeGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young Award Winner, who recently completed one of the best seasons by a pitcher in recent memory.
Toeing the rubber for the home team, San Diego Padres was the rookie out of Austin, Texas, right-hander Chris Paddack.
The state of Florida was instrumental in the development of both pitchers. DeGrom grew up in DeLand, a city approximately 35 miles north of Orlando, and played his college ball at neighboring Stetson University, the collegiate home of fellow Cy Young Award Winner Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians. Paddack began his professional career when the Miami Marlins drafted him in the 8th round of the 2015 June Amateur Draft.
The Marlins traded Paddack to the Padres for 39-year old reliever Fernando Rodney, who posted a 5.89 ERA in Miami after starting the year with a stellar 0.32 mark in San Diego. Paddack soon suffered a torn UCL, requiring Tommy John Surgery, which ultimately cost Paddack the rest of 2016 and the entire 2017 season.
Nearly three years later, Paddack has firmly established himself as one of the game’s premier pitchers, not only in the National League but all of baseball, in the midst of what is now a must-see race for NL Rookie of the Year between him and Mets first basemen Peter Alonso.
The Padres chose an aggressive path in promoting him to the Opening Day MLB roster, risking the loss of an extra year of service time. Paddack has demonstrated that the move was the right one.
Through 7 games started, the right-hander leads the NL with a minuscule 1.55 ERA, 0.69 WHIP (best in all of baseball among qualifying pitchers), and a mere average of 4 hits per 9 innings pitched (also best in the sport).
Last night, the powerful Texan turned in arguably the best start of his young career. Throwing a season-high 91 pitches, Paddack held the Mets offense to four hits over 7.2 innings pitched, walking just 1 and striking out a season-high 11. Along the way, he notched his third career win.
Arguably the most impressive aspect of Paddack’s game is the exceptional command he has demonstrated over his brief minor and major league career. Commanding an upper-90s fastball, which was clocked as high as 97.9 mph on Monday night, and a changeup that has already rates among the best in the game, Paddack has a SO/W ratio of 4.6:1, allowing only 10 walks against 46 strikeouts. Across 177.2 minor league innings pitched, Paddack struck out 230 hitters and walked just 20, highlighted by a 90-inning performance in 2018 at Advanced-A and Double-A, where the Texan struck out 120 and walked just 8, good enough for SO/W ratio of 15:1.
Not only is Paddack throwing strikes, seemingly at will, but a majority of what he’s thrown this year has mattered, for lack of a better word. According to Paul Hembekides, a researcher for the ESPN program “Get Up,” Paddack’s 56-percent competitive pitch rate is the highest among all qualified pitchers in the majors this season.
What made Paddack’s utter dominance of the Mets lineup so fascinating was his comments made about the aforementioned Alonso prior to that night’s game.
Paddack had this to say when speaking to “the Athletic,” about Alonso, the reigning NL Rookie of the Month and early season candidate, along with Paddack for NL Rookie of the Year; “Does he deserve NL Rookie of the Month? Absolutely. But I’m coming for him. And we’ll see Monday who the Top Dog is.”
Paddack certainly delivered.
Alonso hit 9 home runs with a slugging percentage of .628 and an OPS of .985 in April. In three plate appearances, the Rookie of the Month went 0-3 with two strikeouts, as Paddack’s elevated his fastball, location, and velocity, tossing his 3 fastest pitches of the year (between 97 and 98 mph) against Alonso.
Through Alonso’s first 35 games with the Mets, the team has gone 16-19. The sub-.500 record can’t be blamed on Alonso, as starters DeGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz, have been relatively inconsistent at the outset of the season. In Paddack’s 7 starts, the Padres have gone 6-1.
While this looks to be an exciting race for Rookie of the Year, the Padres will be faced with a difficult decision later in the year as Paddack’s innings count continues to rise.
Already at 40.2 IP this season, the righty has never eclipsed 100 innings in any season of pro ball, so shutting him down near the end of the season may give Alonso a late-season edge in the race.
According to baseball-reference, both players have generated 1.6 WAR at their respective positions.
However this race turns out, one has to be happy for both teams. For the Mets, while Alonso won’t be like Paul Goldschmidt or peak-Albert Pujols over at first base, the Mets have themselves an average-defender, this according to FanGraphs who rate Alonso’s glove at a 50 on their 20-80 scale, with legitimate 40-home run potential.
The Padres have seemingly found themselves an ace, and possibly the next face of the franchise. At just 23-years old, Paddack already displays advanced command across what looks like a lethal three-pitch arsenal Paddack looks like a future Cy Young candidate, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he wins one or two over the course of his career.
This level of command should age well into his thirties when fastball velocity inevitably declines, especially with his changeup as a weapon. Former power pitchers such as CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw have adjusted to life without their previous velocity, and Paddack’s superior changeup should remain a weapon as his career advances.
But for now, let us enjoy the privilege it is to watch an ace continue to hone his craft.
