BY Greg Fuchs
The NFL pre-season schedule will conclude this weekend and on Monday each team will need to cut 27 players to get down to the 53-man roster limit. So, what better time to break out the crystal ball to predict which teams will make the playoffs this season.
As a reminder, the NFL has expanded the regular season to 17 games with 7 teams (4 division winners and 3 wild card teams) making the playoffs in each conference. In 2020, the Dolphins won 10 games, but still missed the playoffs, so it may take 11 wins (or more) to make the playoffs this year.
Let’s look at the AFC starting with the AFC East.
AFC East: Buffalo won the division last year with a 13-3 record and they return most of their starters including MVP candidate QB Josh Allen. As such, I envision them winning the division again. 10 of their games are against playoff caliber teams including the last years Super Bowl participants the Bucs and the Chiefs, but that should not deter them, as they are a well rounded team with an elite quarterback.
Miami still has too many question marks (offensive line, Tua, health of the WRs) for me to feel comfortable picking them to win the division, but I do envision them grabbing one of the wild card spots. Their defense & special teams should be amongst the best in the NFL and their offense should be much improved with Tua in his 2nd year and the addition of play makers Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle.
New England will also be a strong contender for a wild card spot. They will be playing an old school style of football as the strength of their team will be defense and running the football. But in the NFL these days, you need to be able to throw the football if you want to compete with the elite teams and that is where I see the Pats coming up short. Their wide receiver corps is one of the weakest in the league and their QB will either be a rookie (Mac Jones) or veteran Cam Newton, who has proven to be injury prone and inconsistent as a passer in recent years.
As for the J-E-T-S, I like the offensive players they drafted in QB Zach Wilson, RB Michael Carter and WR Elijah Moore, but they need more talent and experience before contending for a playoff spot.
AFC North: This division is amongst the best in the NFL and will again produce multiple playoff teams. In 2020 the Steelers won the division with a 12-4 record while the Ravens & Browns both went 11-5 and made the playoffs. In 2021, I think the Steelers will be on the outside looking in as they have O-line problems plus Ben Roethlisberger isn’t quite what he used to be. The Bengals will be much improved but need at least 1 more off-season to be a playoff contender.
I do envision both Baltimore and Cleveland making the playoffs again. It’s a coin flip as to who will win the division, as both are well rounded teams, but I will go with the Browns as I like their passing game better and the NFL is all about being able to throw the ball.
AFC South: Tennessee and Indianapolis both finished 11-5 in 2020 with the Titans winning the division based on tie breakers. It will once again be a tight battle between the 2 teams, but I will go with the Titans winning the division as I like Ryan Tannehill a lot more than Carson Wentz at the QB position. It also doesn’t hurt to have the league’s best rusher, Derrick Henry, in your backfield. I don’t envision the 2nd place finisher grabbing a wild card spot despite pretty much getting 4 automatic wins by having 2 of the worst teams in the NFL, Houston & Jacksonville, in their division.
AFC West: The division winner here is a no brainer as long as the Chief’s Patrick Mohomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill remain healthy. Plus, Kansas City learned a hard lesson in their Super Bowl loss to Tampa. They needed to improve their offensive line, which they did.
The rest of the division should be very competitive. I like Denver’s defense and their skill players on offense, but I am not a huge fan of their QB, Teddy Bridgewater. I envision them with 9 wins, which won’t be enough to make the playoffs. The Raiders went 8-8 last season and I expect them to be around .500 again this season.
That leaves the LA Chargers, who went 7-9 last year including several narrow losses. QB Justin Herbert, who had an outstanding rookie season, should be even better in year 2. They have a new head coach, which should help. What they really need, though, is better health as the injury bug hampered their defense, O-line and RB Austin Ekeler in 2020. They have also significantly improved their offensive line with the addition of Pro Bowl center Corey Linsley and 1st round draft pick, tackle Rashawn Slater. I think that pushes them over the edge and will allow them to secure the final wild card spot.
In summary:
AFC East – Buffalo
AFC North – Cleveland
AFC South – Tennessee
AFC West – Kansas City
Wild Cards – Miami, Baltimore & LA Chargers
On the outside looking in – New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis & Denver
Still a year or more away – NY Jets, Cincinnati & Las Vegas
2 or more years away – Houston & Jacksonville
Next up, the playoff predictions for the NFC.
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