By Louis Addeo-Weiss
In a world filled with uncertainty, one certainty lies in the answer to the question of who the greatest quarterback of all-time is.
Don’t know the answer to this? – see the title above.
To list Tom Brady’s achievements is for another article solely on its own, but our topic at hand zeroes in on the kind of QB the man bestowed the honorary title of “the GOAT” is in the present-day.
A look at the Patriots’ 10-1 record would lead many to believe that Brady is still at the top of his game. And given the fact that Brady has had to continue his work at manufacturing wide receivers ala a Jakobi Meyers in the wake of injuries to Phillip Dorsett, Rex Burkhead, Josh Gordon (eventually waived), the quick-axing of Antonio Brown, and the growing concern surrounding running back Sony Michel, I’d say he’s done a fine job.
Entering Week 13, the Patriots’ offense, which, at this point, resembles more Washington’s Continental Army at Valley Forge, is 5th among 32 teams with 288 points scored (300 total; 2 defensive TD).
Brady’s numbers, at least on the surface, don’t read out like of a 42-year old, as he’s gone 15-5 TD-INT while completing 62.2% of his passes. However, a closer look beneath the hood says that the man known as “TB12” may be in the midst of some serious regression.
Let’s start with the aforementioned completion percentage. While 62% is more than respectable, pro-football reference outlines it would the 6th lowest such mark of Brady’s career over the course of a single-season.
After a 2013 season which saw him complete just 60.5% of his pass attempts (granted NE still managed to go 12-4), Brady went on arguably the best five-year run of his career, leading the team to a 59-17 record in his starts, winning three Super Bowls, an MVP, throwing for 158 touchdowns against just 38 interceptions, while completing 65.5% of his passes.
Pro-football reference’s adjusted passing metrics, which all set 100 as the standard average, point to a man showing his age. Of the 9 adjusted passing metrics, Brady has graded below average in 6 of them: Yards per attempt index (Y/A+; 88), Net yards per attempt Index (NY/A+; 96), Adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A+; 95), Completion percentage index (Cmp+%; 91), Passing TD percentage index (TD%+; 87), and Passer rating index (Pass+; 95).
Though he does lead the NFL in completions (273), Brady simultaneously leads the sport in pass attempts (439). Averaging out to nearly 40 pass attempts per game, Brady is on pace to drop back 639 times before seasons end, which would set an unwanted new career-high, eclipsing his total of 637 set in 2012.
This year’s model Tom Brady has had to rely more on his arm given the disadvantages presented to them via New England’s backfield blues.
While they’re 13 rushing TDs rank 5th among all 32 teams, their 3.3 yards-per-attempt (Y/A) rank a dismal 30th. And while Michel has 6 of those rushing TDs, he’s averaged just 3.4 yards-per-carry this season, regression on a rookie year which saw him average 4.5 Y/A.
Some may even speculate the overextending of his passing game has factored into reports surrounding a lingering elbow-injury that had him listed as questionable for Sunday’s 13-9 win over Dallas.
There are multiple conclusions a person came come to with this data at their expense, but what should be said is this – the Patriots don’t make it out of the AFC should they continue to rely heavily on the 42-year old Brady.
As historically great as their defense is (a mere 8 TD allowed through 11 games, NFL best 117 points allowed), should the run game continue to falter, so too will the team come playoff time.
And should New England not find themselves at Hard Rock Stadium on February 2nd for Super Bowl LIV, this could be the last fans see of Tom Brady in a Patriots uniform.
