The Philadelphia Eagles and Jalen Hurts reset the contract market for quarterbacks.
So … who’s next?
OK, yes, yes. Before we begin thinking about which quarterback will get a massive contract, let’s look at the deal Philly finalized on Monday.
Hurts, 24, and the Eagles agreed to a five-year, $255 million contract extension with $180 million guaranteed. The average annual value — $51 million per year — is the largest sum in NFL history. Maybe it’s not at the same scale of Patrick Mahomes, whose deal is worth $450 million over 10 years. And maybe it’s not fully guaranteed like the contract given to Deshaun Watson, who will make $46 million per year on a deal that extends through 2027.
But Hurts’ deal is the first extension among quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL Draft class, with Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert waiting for their big deals to come next. Hurts is suddenly making more than $50 million per year, but Burrow is slated to earn $5.5 million in 2023 and Herbert will make just $4.2 million in new money during the upcoming season.
Hurts’ deal also came before an extension for Lamar Jackson, 26, whose strained contract negotiations with the Baltimore Ravens are ongoing.
So did Hurts’ agent — by negotiating a deal for the Eagles quarterback — essentially twist off a stuck lid for the rest of the quarterbacks around the league?
Or are things going to get more complicated?
Let’s dive into how Hurts’ deal impacts his peers.
Jackson wanted the Watson deal — his impasse with Baltimore seems to be all about guaranteed money. Well, Hurts’ contract ain’t that. While Watson did not reset the market in the way of total dollars, he made sure that he would make every penny of his deal. The Browns granted him the fully guaranteed contract structure despite past accusations of sexual assault and harassment against Watson.
Jackson likely wants a guaranteed deal to prevent against a situation like that of Cam Newton, Carson Wentz or the other mobile quarterbacks whose athletic tools declined suddenly. In the NFL, it has become increasingly common for teams to backload their contracts (putting the bulk of the money into the final years of a long deal) which allows the teams to pay out only a fraction of the sum that the player signed for. That’s exactly the kind of deal Lamar does not want to sign.
In a sense, Hurts’ deal sends a clear message to Jackson: You can’t always get what you want.
The Ravens quarterback, who is currently set to play on a transition tag worth $32.4 million in 2023, may have been outmaneuvered by Baltimore. Maybe he will accept a deal similar to what Hurts got. Maybe Lamar will hit the open market in 2024. But it’s possible the Ravens franchise tag him again next year, which would stall his free agency eligibility until 2025.
Hurts’ contract only makes Jackson’s situation murkier. Because it’s a step away from the kind of contract Lamar wanted. It’s getting harder and harder for Jackson, who doesn’t have an agent, to point at Watson’s contract and say: Give me that.
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Joe Burrow
If I’m Burrow’s agent, I’m pushing for Hurts’ contract — and then some.
On paper, Burrow and Hurts have similar résumés, with both of them appearing and excelling in Super Bowls. (Of course, they both lost despite their performances.) They both were MVP candidates in 2022. Where Hurts’ stats are lacking as a passer, he compensates as a runner.
- Burrow in 2022: 4,732 yards from scrimmage (4,475 passing, 257 rushing), 40 touchdowns and 12 turnovers.
- Hurts in 2022: 4,461 yards from scrimmage (3,701 passing, 760 rushing), 35 touchdowns and 11 turnovers.
Burrow has sustained his high level of production from 2021 to 2022. He’s an easy sell to Cincinnati as a quarterback of Hurts’ caliber and — again, if I’m Burrow’s agent — I’m going to sell the Bengals on his pocket passing. Because while running quarterbacks have a tremendous amount of appeal schematically, a pocket-passing quarterback is likely to have a longer career. The Bengals should feel good about committing to Burrow indefinitely. The game has continued to protect its quarterbacks more than ever if they stay in the pocket. Burrow should have a long and successful career. And maybe a longer one than Hurts, if the Eagles QB keeps running 150-plus times per year.
So Burrow can ask for even more than Hurts. And there’s no doubt in my mind that the longer the Bengals wait, the higher Burrow’s price will get.
Justin Herbert
Where does that leave Herbert?
He has been in the fringe conversation as an MVP candidate, but never a finalist (largely because of the Chargers’ issues). He has been in the postseason but never in a Super Bowl. Herbert might have to be patient in signing a huge contract with a statistical downturn in 2022 and only one career postseason appearance (a loss to the Jaguars this January).
These issues aren’t even really Herbert’s fault. The Chargers are going to Charger — maybe even worse than the Jets are going to Jet. Just ask Philip Rivers, whose career underwhelmed compared to his peers.
But there’s no denying Herbert’s remarkable physical tools. And if you look at his stats in 2021, you’ll see one of the best passers in the game: 5,014 passing yards, 38 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. So his 2022 season might stall the progress on his contract. But something tells me that he could make a killing after the 2023 season.
The biggest question — at least in my mind — is whether Herbert might want to play for a franchise defined by something other than a good-but-never-great legacy.
