The house always wins.
The rise in sports gambling has only further proven that the oddsmakers are the ultimate insiders. And what the oddsmakers are saying heading into the 2023 NFL Draft is that Alabama QB Bryce Young is the favorite to be the first overall pick.
That’s awfully interesting to the Chicago Bears, since they are the ones currently holding the No. 1 pick while the rumor mill churns out various ways they could use it.
As of late, there have been reports of anonymous NFL general managers saying they expect Bears quarterback Justin Fields to be moved. That would likely mean it would indeed be Chicago that takes Bryce Young with the first overall pick. But for as many execs as are said to have that thought, I’ve talked to a few coaches who seem to think the opposite.
See, it’s not very often that the team with the first overall pick doesn’t need a quarterback. And for as many holes as the Bears have to fill on their roster (offensive line, defensive line, linebacker, pass rusher, wide receiver and on and on and on), they can’t afford not to acquire extra draft capital — for this year and for next.
That’s the other thing. I want to caution against anyone saying Chicago can cash in the postseason after one offseason, even when the Bears have eight draft picks and more than $100 million in cap space to try to make it happen. They could potentially be looking at another first-round pick in 2024 — if they play their cards right.
Which is exactly what Bears general manager Ryan Poles could be doing.
Poles already seems to have a heck of a poker face. All of this could just be his way of manipulating the aforementioned rumor mill. The Bears are in control of the board right now. What they do will create a domino effect. They’re already going to get a haul for the first overall pick. But what could they do to sweeten the deal at this point?
Make other teams think they have to talk you out of your shot at Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud or Will Levis, that’s what.
If the word is that the Bears are seriously considering trading Fields and taking a new quarterback who has a longer timeline — one second-year GM Poles scouted, evaluated and believes in — well then maybe teams throw in something extra.
It’s not because they don’t believe in Fields.
Will Bears move off Justin Fields with No. 1 pick?
FOX Sports NFC North reporter Carmen Vitali joins Joy Taylor to discuss the chances of the Bears trading Justin Fields and drafting a QB with the No. 1 pick.
Bears head coach Matt Eberflus, and by proxy Poles, have already started building the offense around Fields. A few games into last season, offensive coordinator Luke Getsy figured out Fields’ limitations, evaluated the existing talent around him and started calling plays that exploited the QB’s skill set and hid the Bears’ multiple weaknesses.
Now why would they do all that recon just to trade Fields and start over with an unknown?
If the Bears were to instead trade out of the first spot, they’d be armed to surround Fields with the talent that’s been lacking to this point in his career. What better way to evaluate whether he can actually be your quarterback of the future? It’s hardly fair to base your conclusions on what he did in 2022 with a shaky-at-best offensive line, limited weapons and first-year knowledge of a brand-new system.
But for argument’s sake, let’s explore what trading Fields and taking Young would look like. We’re arguing whether the Bears brass is sold on Fields — the people who are in the building with him every day, talking to him every day, seeing how he works. If they aren’t certain he’s a franchise quarterback, what would make anyone outside the organization more confident in Fields than they are? And if that’s the case, maybe Fields could net Chicago second- and third-round picks in a trade. Maybe. Probably only one of those would be in this year’s draft. But hey, it’s a two-year process, right?
And before you come for me on that not being enough, consider that Matt Ryan, an objectively more accomplished quarterback, albeit with bigger contract baggage and advanced age, was traded last offseason for a third-round pick.
OK, so then the Bears draft Young with their first overall. They now have two second-round picks again for a total of nine picks in this draft, and then they have another third-rounder to use next year.
But if the 6-foot-3, 228-pound Fields ran for 1,143 yards this season because he couldn’t trust his protection, 5-foot-10ish, 190-poundish Young is going to have a really rough go of it. Young is mobile in the way Joe Burrow is mobile. Young maneuvers the pocket but doesn’t quite make his money outside of it. He’s not a legitimate run threat the way Fields is, and he can’t take hits like Fields does.
That means the Bears would have to solve all their offensive line issues and get to the trenches level of the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs or Detroit Lions (yeah, I said it) in one offseason. There is absolutely no room for error there, and it may come at the cost of weapons.
From there, Young is still an unknown. Chicago would be taking a gamble on a very successful college quarterback who may not ultimately pan out.
But he does extend the timeline on what is already a young (no pun intended) team. The Bears would have longer to build and take advantage of success with Young on his rookie contract. And if you’re going to live by the roll of the quarterback dice, at least you were the one to roll this time.
However.
Let’s say the Bears don’t trade Fields and instead trade the pick. Even if they were to trade down as little as three spots to where the Indianapolis Colts are clamoring for a quarterback, that alone could net a future first-round pick along with some other pieces.
There’s even (kind of) precedent for this. It was a while ago, so don’t mistake it for a one-to-one comparison, but in 2004 the San Diego Chargers drafted Eli Manning first overall. Well, Manning didn’t want to play for the Chargers, so the New York Giants, who had taken Philip Rivers with the fourth overall pick, traded Rivers to San Diego along with a third-round pick in that draft as well as first- and fifth-round picks in 2005. So essentially, the Chargers pick-swapped from one to four and netted an additional third- and future first- and fifth-round picks. With that first-rounder in 2005, they drafted linebacker Shawne Merriman, an All-Pro and three-time Pro Bowler.
The Bears wouldn’t be able to take advantage of that future first right away but again, patience here is key. Multiple first-round picks in 2024 could allow them to put the cherry on top of a roster that is only one or two players away from real contention. Imagine if the Bears went the Lions’ route in 2023, finished the season with a surprisingly good record and all the momentum going their way, only to have two likely top-20 picks waiting for them in the offseason?
Oh wait, that’s exactly what’s happening in Detroit — and look how exciting it is.
With all that extra capital this year and next, the Bears could absolutely grab some key pieces to put a talent bubble around Fields in 2023, taste success and stability this year and be a contender by the 2024 season.
Not to mention if that doesn’t quite work out, Chicago would have all the chips to go and get a quarterback in next year’s draft, with names like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye as the headliners.
I have to think the Bears’ leadership knows all of this. I don’t really think they’re considering trading Fields and missing out on the opportunity to trade out of the top spot while having their quarterback position secured. There’s too much to gain when so much is needed.
Trading out of the top spot and sticking it out with Fields at least one more season? That’s the safe bet, if there ever is one.
