The United States women’s national team wants you to believe everything is business as usual.
They’re through to the round of 16 of the World Cup. That’s all that matters, and there’s nothing to see here.
Sure, there has been some adversity along the way, but it has been overcome. The group moves forward unflustered, it insists, with four victories standing between the two-time defending champion and a historic three-peat.
But there is something to see here, and something to feel, and something, if you’ve been following this squad for a while, that seems completely freaking outlandish: The USWNT will go into its next game … as an underdog.
That’s the kind of thing that happens in sports but doesn’t happen to this team. Not at a World Cup. Not ever, or at least not within the realms of recent recall.
But it is the reality now.
When Alex Morgan, Lindsey Horan, Sophia Smith and the rest of the USA lineup walk out against Sweden at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium on Sunday (coverage begins at 4 a.m., ET, with kickoff at 5 a.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app), a ton of people — some of their biggest fans included — are going to be expecting them to lose.
How much of a challenge will Sweden pose to USWNT?
That the USA is the underdog against the Tokyo Olympic silver medalist Swedes has been the consensus media view, and a theme of the FOX broadcast panel’s discussion on Wednesday’s coverage.
The Washington Post’s Steven Goff described them as underdogs, “despite their No. 1 ranking and record number of championship trophies.” To say that the team’s chances of surviving the round of 16 were slim, was “putting it nicely,” according to USA Today’s Nancy Armour.
The domestic oddsmakers say something different, with Fan Duel having the USA (+100) favored over Sweden (+265), but there are different factors at play there.
When a national team plays, its odds are usually shorter in its own country, on account of the amount of patriotic money that is wagered. Try putting a bet down on England, in England, during the men’s World Cup, and the price you’ll be offered will be way less generous than reality dictates.
Can the USWNT beat Sweden in the World Cup knockout stages?
While the loyal American dollar has a manipulative effect on the line, betting tip sites are frenetically urging their savvy followers in the direction of the Scandinavians.
In fairness, Sweden deserves to be favored. After a tense comeback in its opening game against a talented and enjoyable South Africa side that has been better than advertised, coach Peter Gerhardsson’s squad demolished Italy and was able to rest key starters before also beating Argentina.
It also has previous form against the USA to draw upon, having knocked the Americans out of the 2016 Olympics in a quarterfinal penalty shootout and meting out a 3-0 bashing in the group stage at the Tokyo Games.
If you’re trying to remember the last time the USA went into a World Cup game as an underdog, good luck, for you’ll be testing the outer limits of your powers of recollection.
It didn’t happen in 2019, when the march to the title behind coach Jill Ellis’ tightly-engineered game plan and Megan Rapinoe’s timely goals saw the team go into every game as an overwhelming favorite. England provided the biggest test in the semifinal, and the Netherlands a brave but lesser one in the championship game.
“I think this calls for a formation change” — Carli Lloyd on Sweden match
Four years earlier, Carli Lloyd’s heroics in the final against Japan were mind-blowing, but even with that game being a revenge mission for the 2011 final loss, few genuinely expected the USWNT to stumble again. Same thing for the semifinal that year, where Germany was predicted to put up a challenge, and did, but had certainly not assumed the role of favorite.
The closest thing to a 50-50 before a crucial World Cup showdown in recent times came in the 2011 quarterfinal, against a Brazil side that then looked to be at the peak of its powers behind the majestic force of Marta’s talented feet.
With the Americans having lost to Sweden in the group that year, the quarterfinal shaped up as a truly titanic battle, but still the USA probably had the edge going in on account of beating Brazil in the Olympic final three years earlier.
So, now we are way back into the reaches of time, to 2007 and Hope Solo’s famous eruption after being left out of the team’s World Cup semifinal loss to Brazil. But part of the reason why that 4-0 setback was so dramatic, aside from Marta’s incredible individual display, was precisely because it was unexpected.
The USWNT has had close shaves over the years. It has lost games, big ones.
But it has always carried a certain aura and that presence has usually manifested itself in an overarching public — and international — expectation that it was going to win.
That’s not there now, not after the way it was nearly sent home from this World Cup by a lively and courageous Portugal side on the final Group E matchday.
The Americans aren’t out of this, inevitably doomed to disaster. Not by a long shot. But the journey is difficult now. This is a fresh challenge, a new identity.
Maybe the USWNT will be motivated by being an underdog, and hurt by the loss of its all-conquering perception.
Maybe it will be liberated by it, freed from the shackles of expectation.
