By Louis Addeo-Weiss
A month ago, chirping around baseball’s upcoming trade deadline centered on the San Francisco Giants.
After the calendar month of June, the club sat at 36-47 with all signs pointing to them trading the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, and Tony Watson in hopes of ushering in a new era of Giants baseball.
Now, after a 15-3 start to the month of July, the team sits at 51-50, good enough for second in the NL West that has been dominated by the rival Los Angeles Dodgers.
What is a formality is the Dodgers winning their seventh consecutive division title in hopes of furthering their pursuit for the franchise’s first world championship since 1988.
According to baseball-reference, the Dodgers have already punched their ticket to October, as noted by a “>99.9%” chance of making the playoffs, with a 28.6% of winning the World Series.
On the other hand, the recent surge by San Francisco has elevated them into the conversation of baseball’s most interesting club in advance of the deadline.
While the playoff odds for the Giants aren’t as ever-present as they are for the Dodgers, as the club has an 11.6% chance of making it to the postseason, several factors currently exist that could greatly influence what first year general manager Farhan Zaidi and co. decide to do.
For starters, 2019 is longtime manager Bruce Bochy’s final season at the helm, as he is set to retire at season’s end, and for someone who has been the captain of three World Series championships teams in 2010, ‘12, and ‘14 respectively, the ultimate decision on whether Zaidi pushes forth on selling will be greatly impacted by Bochy.
I’ve made it a point in the past to preach the importance of context, as it informs each and everything that goes on around an organization and what the future may or will hold for them.
With that said, should the Giants decide to fully forego a selloff, it is imperative the club realizes that, at most, they are playing for a one-game win-or-take-all wild card matchup.
As it currently sits, San Francisco is tied with the fellow division rival Arizona Diamondbacks for two games out of the second wild card spot.
Were the season to end today, the Washington Nationals would face off against the St. Louis Cardinals to see who would advance to the National League Division Series.
Context too applies to the club’s upcoming schedule. With just a week’s worth of games left until the July 31st deadline, the Giants will face off against the Chicago Cubs (54-46), San Diego Padres (47-52), and the Philadelphia Phillies (52-48).
Should the Giants lose five of those seven games, chances are the club will most likely reshift their focus towards selling assets, particularly Bumgarner, who has been linked to clubs such as the Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros, and Atlanta Braves.
In 21 games started, the left-hander has posted a 5-7 record, though to the tune of a respectable 3.65 ERA.
Over the course of his last six starts, one of which was an abbreviated two inning outing against the Cardinals on July 6th, Bumgarner has a 3.03 ERA, while striking out 37 over 32.2 innings pitched.
The club’s recent surge has led many around baseball to clear out the possibility of a Bumgarner trade even taking place.
According to MLB Network insider Jon Heyman, when asked about the possibility of the Giants moving Bumgarner, one rival executive was quoted as saying “No way the Giants can sell, they’re on fire.”
The club could go the buy-sell route taken by the 2017 Minnesota Twins, who were in a similar standings situation when they acquired veteran starting pitcher Jamie Garcia before flipping him the Yankees after making just one start due to poor ensuing performance by the club following the trade.
A good model too Zaidi could follow is that of the Tampa Bay Rays, who, within their financial limitations and use of analytics, have worked over the past three years to trade away high-priced players such as Evan Longoria, while acquiring assets such as Tommy Pham and Austin Meadows to shorten the rebuilding window.
Zaidi, who spent the past four seasons working in the front office for the Los Angeles Dodgers with Andrew Friedman, former general manager for the Tampa Bay Rays, has a background in analytics given his years with Friedman and sabermetric pioneer in the front office Billy Beane while with the Oakland Athletics.
