By: Jeremy T. Ballreich The 2025 NFL regular season reaches its crescendo this Sunday, January 4, 2026, as the Detroit Lions (8-8) travel to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears (11-5). While the trajectory of these two historic rivals has diverged over the last month, the stakes remain surprisingly high for a Week 18 finale.
For Chicago, it is a chance to solidify their status as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. For Detroit, it is a final opportunity to play spoiler and salvage pride after a season of missed opportunities.
The Stakes: Seeding vs. Spoilers
The Chicago Bears have already done what many thought impossible a year ago: they have clinched the NFC North title. However, the difference between the No. 2 and No. 3 seed is monumental. A victory on Sunday guarantees Chicago the No. 2 seed and at least two potential home playoff games at Soldier Field. Under first-year head coach Ben Johnson—the former Lions offensive architect—the Bears have transformed into a disciplined, high-octane unit.
The Lions, conversely, were officially eliminated from playoff contention following a disappointing loss to the Vikings. However, Dan Campbell’s squad has never been one to fold. Detroit is looking to avenge a late-season slide and prove that their 52-21 blowout win over Chicago back in Week 2 wasn’t a fluke.
Matchup to Watch: The 2nd Year QB vs. The Vet
The narrative center of this game is the maturation of Caleb Williams. The 2nd Year QB sensation is just 270 yards away from becoming the first quarterback in Bears franchise history to throw for 4,000 yards in a single season. Williams has been surgical in recent weeks, aided by a defense that leads the league in takeaways (+22 turnover differential).
He faces a Detroit defense led by Aidan Hutchinson, who currently sits at 14 sacks. The Lions’ pass rush remains their greatest equalizer. If Hutchinson can disrupt Williams’ rhythm early, Jared Goff and the Detroit offense—ranked 3rd in the NFL in scoring at 28.9 PPG—have the firepower to turn this into a shootout.
Key Stats & Comparison:
Injury Concerns
Both teams are limping into the finale. The Lions’ offensive line is a major concern, with All-Pro tackle Penei Sewell (ankle) out and Taylor Decker (shoulder) questionable appearing on the injury report. Star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is also battling knee and ankle issues but is expected to play. Alex Anzalone, Gio Manu, Thomas Harper are all out!
Chicago is monitoring a foot injury to breakout receiver Rome Odunze and a quad injury to rookie Luther Burden III. If one or both are sidelined, the burden will fall heavily on veteran DJ Moore and the league’s top-tier rushing attack featuring D’Andre Swift.
The Verdict: Can Detroit Spoil the Party?
The “Ben Johnson Revenge Game” (Round 2) carries a heavy psychological weight. Johnson knows the Detroit personnel better than anyone, and he has Caleb Williams playing with a level of confidence rarely seen in a rookie.
However, the Lions possess a “nothing to lose” mentality. Jared Goff (4,233 yards, 33 TDs) is playing some of the best football of his career despite the team’s record. If the Lions’ offensive line can hold up against Montez Sweat and the Bears’ front four, Detroit can absolutely push this game into the 30s.
Prediction:
The Bears’ defense is the difference-maker. While Detroit will keep it close through three quarters, Chicago’s ability to force late-game turnovers will likely secure the win and the No. 2 seed.
Kickoff: Sunday, Jan 4, 4:25 PM ET
Broadcast: FOX
Line: Bears -2.5
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