The Chicago Bears, forever in search of a franchise quarterback, have the good fortune to land the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft in a year with coveted passers at the top. But the team faces a huge decision in the next two months.
The Bears could stay put and use the pick — likely on USC‘s Caleb Williams — or for a second year in a row, they could deal that top selection for a windfall of draft capital and stick with Justin Fields, still only 24 and entering his fourth year in Chicago.
NFL teams never have bigger decisions than when seeking a long-term answer at quarterback. Williams is a potential superstar, but you don’t have to look far to see how the choice at No. 1 can go wrong quickly. Last year, Carolina struggled to the league’s worst record with Bryce Young at quarterback after acquiring the top pick from Chicago, while Houston won a division title and a playoff game with C.J. Stroud, chosen second overall.
Williams, 22, threw for 8,170 yards and 72 touchdowns against only 10 interceptions in the past two seasons at USC, winning the Heisman Trophy in 2022. Fields, who turns 25 in March, has seen modest success in his three years in Chicago, throwing 40 touchdowns against 30 interceptions while proving himself one of the NFL’s most dangerous running quarterbacks.
The Bears, after a 2-7 start last season, finished the year 5-3, bringing back coach Matt Eberflus with optimism about more improvement in 2024. Whichever quarterback they choose will work with a new offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron, brought in from Seattle.
So what will the Bears do? Take a rookie with the top pick and the Bears would be able to deal Fields, potentially netting a second-rounder and perhaps a lower pick as well. Stick with Fields — still inexpensive at about $25 million for the next two years, including his fifth-year option for 2025 — and they would be able to trade down and score another impressive package of picks, as Chicago did with Carolina a year ago.
There’s even a middle-ground third option, where Chicago deals Fields, passes on Williams and picks up a slew of draft picks by trading down to No. 2, then still potentially taking a quarterback like North Carolina‘s Drake Maye with the second pick. The Bears could even trade down again from No. 2 and get a prospect like LSU‘s Jayden Daniels.
The scenarios can be dizzying, but Chicago has the advantage of being in control of this draft; the Bears also have the No. 9 overall pick, their own, in addition to the top pick from Carolina. They are the only team able to choose between the draft’s top three quarterbacks — or skip all of them — but that also puts quite a spotlight and pressure on general manager Ryan Poles.
Here’s what FOX Sports’ NFL Staff would do if given the choice between keeping Justin Fields or drafting Caleb Williams:
Henry McKenna: As much potential as Justin Fields showed in 2023, he didn’t show enough consistency to win over the organization — nor get the team out of last place. But he also flashed just enough potential that other teams will be interested in him for a decent trade chip. That’s actually a pretty good spot for the team to be in, given that Chicago has the No. 1 overall pick and a QB prospect like Caleb Williams ready for the NFL.
While I like Fields as a QB prospect, Williams simply has more potential. It’s a tricky game of continually chasing two in the bush when you already have one in the hand. But Williams is worth it. I think the Bears have to trade Fields if offered a second-rounder (or a package of picks with similar value). Then Chicago should nab Williams at No. 1. And even if Fields succeeds somewhere else, the Bears can trust they made the right call. Williams is too good to pass up.
What will the Bears do with Caleb Williams, Justin Fields in the NFL Draft?
Ben Arthur: I don’t think this is much of a debate: Take Williams at No. 1 and deal Fields. It’s been three years with the latter and we’re still discussing flashes, not consistency. In a quarterback-driven league, I’m not sure how that warrants another year of Fields (and the shadow of giving him a pricey second contract) if you’re Chicago when you can just restart the team-friendly rookie contract clock with Williams, who’s believed to be a superior talent anyway.
Even if Williams doesn’t live up to the hype, I would argue that his floor is high enough that you can build a better team around him than around a more expensive Fields. Of course, the Bears would have to accept the possibility that Fields could succeed elsewhere after a trade, but I think you can live with that when you have a can’t-miss prospect in front of you.
Ralph Vacchiano: Fifteen years ago, this wouldn’t have been much of a debate. Given the amount of money and time invested in franchise quarterbacks, the conventional wisdom was always to give them as much time as possible. Nobody gave up on any young quarterback who showed even a glimmer of hope.
But times have changed and, unfortunately for Fields, all he’s shown is a glimmer. Three years into his NFL career, he hasn’t even topped 2,600 passing yards or 17 touchdown passes in a season. And while he’s an incredibly dangerous runner (he ran for an astounding 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022) quarterbacks in the NFL still have to be dangerous with their arms, too. There’s no way around it: This is now a passing league.
So the Bears don’t really have a choice. With Fields entering the final year of his contract and with the Bears holding the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, if they think Caleb Williams — or any quarterback — is a rare talent, a potential franchise quarterback, they have to draft him. Fields surely has upside, but if it hasn’t come out in three seasons, how high could his ceiling really be? They have to pay him soon, and they can’t pay a quarterback for potential when the going rate is more than $40 million per year.
That makes it a no-brainer. They start over with Williams. They see what they can get on the market for Fields. Williams might be a risk, too, and it might take him a couple of years to develop into a star. But Fields already had those years, and it hasn’t happened yet.
Why Chicago is not the best spot for Caleb Williams
Eric D. Williams: The Bears thought enough of Fields to select him No. 11 overall in the 2021 draft, although Chicago had a different front office at the time and general manager Ryan Poles inherited the Ohio State product. Fields has shown glimpses of being a franchise quarterback and the Bears have put in considerable resources to develop him. But Fields remains an unfinished product and the NFC North has turned into one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL.
There’s something to be said for keeping Fields and selecting Williams, giving the Bears a second option should the USC product struggle in making the transition to the NFL. However, Fields is talented and has done enough to command some compensation in return via a trade. He also deserves to go to a franchise that has a plan to continue his development as a quarterback. And Williams is too talented for the Bears to pass up at the top of the draft board.
Greg Auman: I think the Bears stay at No. 1 and take Caleb Williams. What I’m most intrigued by is where Justin Fields lands. You start with the teams that don’t have obvious starters and aren’t picking at the top of the draft. That feels like the Falcons, Steelers, maybe Raiders.
Atlanta might make the most sense — the Falcons have an extra third-rounder from the Calvin Ridley trade that becomes a second if the Jaguars give him an extension. So deal that pick (or their second-round pick, No. 41 overall) and a fifth-rounder, give Fields his fifth-year option or a deal like Jordan Love got, and the Falcons would have two fairly inexpensive years to find out if Fields is their guy. If things play out right, Atlanta is a playoff team in 2024. —Greg Auman
