By Louis Addeo-Weiss
Nearly 70 games into the 2019 season and the narrative thus far is that this is the best Dodgers team we’ve seen in their now seven-year run of the dominance of the National League West, a statement which means a lot considering the team has won back-to-back National League pennants.
According to ESPN Insider Buster Olney the Dodgers’ rank third in team OPS (.805), first in defensive runs saved (75), and second in rotation ERA (2.72). The one knock on what has already been a fantastic season has been the bullpen.
The team’s collective bullpen ERA of 4.42 is 18th in the sport, and the club has already blown 10 saves through this point in the season.
Now, a lot of LA’s late-inning struggles can be attributed to the likes of Joe Kelly.
Kelly, who was brought in on a surprising three-year free agent deal after beating his now-Dodgers’ team in the World Series, has pitched to a 7.59 ERA through his first 21.1 innings pitched, far-and-away the worst of any Dodger reliever with at least 20 innings pitched.
Kelly’s ERA+ of just 56 also ranks atop the list of worst, not only of the Dodgers’ bullpen but on the entire roster. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.83 is second worst on the club, trailing veteran reliever Yimi Garcia’s mark of 5.17.
For Kelly, a power pitcher who was once a top starting pitcher prospect for the St. Louis Cardinals, his command has always seemed to prevent him from fully realizing his potential, and 2019 appears to be the worst we’ve seen of that.
Problems extend beyond merely Kelly and Garcia though. The team’s save-percentage rate of 67.74-percent ranks 17th of 30 teams. The 18 hit-by-pitches from manager Dave Roberts’ pen rank fourth.
As bad as the Dodgers pen has been though, several factors point to a team that has just been downright unlucky.
Due to the strength of their rotation, highlighted Hyun-Jin Ryu’s dazzling 1.35 ERA and 57/5 K/BB ratio, the bullpen has only thrown 199 innings, good for 28th.
On top of that, the bullpen’s 115 runs allowed are tied with the Yankees for 20th and 21st. For context, the Yankees’ bullpen ERA of 3.92 ranks 7th, though the team has logged 241 relief innings to the Dodgers’ aforementioned 199.
According to FanGraphs, the bullpen’s WPA (Win Probability Added), a statistic which measures when runs are scored in regards to importance in a game decision, the Dodgers rank 27th, which leads us to believe that the collective 4.42 ERA may be a bit misleading.
Of LA’s 115 runs allowed by the bullpen, 20 of them have come at the expense of Kelly. 25 of those runs have been allowed by pitchers Caleb Ferguson, Brock Stewart, Dennis Santana, and J.T. Chargois, all of whom are currently not on the 25-man roster. Erase their performance from the Dodgers roster completely, which has accounted for a collective 7.40 ERA between them, and the Dodgers bullpen ERA of 2.69 is easily the best in the majors.
Now, while that is merely a hypothetical, it should be impetuous enough for Dave Roberts to know who not to rely on as the team enters July and August.
What isn’t a hypothetical though, is the fact that the team needs to make their primary trade deadline m.o. to acquire one or multiple arms who will help them get over the hump in October.
Of the names who will likely be available, the team could go after the Indians Brad Hand.
Hand, who is a big reason as to why the Indians 3.20 bullpen ERA is tops in the majors, has pitched to a 0.98 ERA thus far. Even more impressive is the fact that his 5.71 SO/W ratio is the best of his career, topping the mark of 5.20 which he set while pitching for the Padres in 2017.
Should the Dodgers acquire Hand, the team will have control of him through next season, including a club option for 2021.
While not something they’re used to doing, the team could contact their Bay Area-rival San Francisco Giants about left-handers Will Smith and Tony Watson.
Watson, who has pitched with LA before, being traded there from Pittsburgh during the 2017 season, pitched to a 2.70 ERA with the Dodgers, and has continued to be one of baseball’s more underrated relief pitchers in 2019, posting a 2.58 ERA and 2.74 FIP since the start of 2018.
Though the team already has two lefties in Scott Alexander and Julio Urias in their pen, Watson could serve as a bridge in the 7th or 8th inning to closer Kenley Jansen.
And given Jansen’s somewhat regression due to health problems and concerns over diminished velocity in the past two seasons, as his 3.02 ERA since the start of 2018 is the highest mark he’s posted over a two-season stretch, Smith, who currently serves as the Giants closer, could give Roberts additional options should Jansen run into a period of struggles.
If the Dodgers don’t address their bullpen, due to the strength of their offense and starting pitching, they should win the NL West handily, but when October rolls around, the team will be tasked with getting the monkey off their back of bringing the city its first World Series championship since the days of Kirk Gibson and Orel Hershiser, which means acquiring bullpen-aid is a must.
