Miami Dolphins – Tua and Contracts

The Miami Dolphins offseason is pretty much behind us. Free agency, trades, the NFL draft, OTAs and the mandatory mini camp are all now in the rear-view mirror. Fins fans are starting to get excited with the start of training camp just a month away.

The recent mini camp was mostly uneventful with most of the Dolphins news revolving around Tua Tagovailoa’s performance and contract negotiations for several Miami players. 

Let’s start with the $$$. And the deal that is already done.

Last week the Dolphins signed linebacker Jerome Baker to a 3-year extension for $39 million ($28.4M guaranteed). The 2018 3rd round draft pick has exceeded expectations as he has been one of their best defensive players for the past 3 seasons. The size of the deal was a bit more than I was expecting, but I have no problem with it as the signing sends a strong message to fans and players alike that Miami is committed to signing their own players, which has not always been the case in years past. 

Hitting on draft picks hasn’t been a strong point for Miami in recent years and many times when they did get it right, the player often left town before signing their 2nd contract with the team. Lamar Miller, Olivier Vernon and Ja’Wuan James all left via free agency while Jarvis Landry, Laremy Tunsil, Kenyan Drake and Minkah Fitzpatrick were all traded. 

With Baker now locked up for the next 4 seasons, the Fins can now focus their attention on the following 3 players.

Xavien Howard – Howard signed a 5 year $75.25M extension in 2019 that made him the highest paid cornerback in the NFL. So why is he asking for a new contract just 1 year into the deal? Well, not only is he coming off his best season in the NFL, but he is now just the 6th highest paid cornerback in the league. 

OK, that can happen in a league where every year brings escalating player salaries. But the kicker is that Miami is one of the teams that caused that escalation by signing cornerback Byron Jones to a 5 year $82M deal last year. How did Miami not expect that signing to come back and bite them when Howard is a better player?  

Miami management needs to nip this situation in the bud in the next week or 2. They can’t afford for this matter to lead to a training camp holdout or even worse, a demand for a trade. Howard is the best player on the Dolphins, and they need to keep him.  Give him the new contract he deserves.

Emmanuel Ogbah – Miami signed him a year ago to a 2 year $15M deal and he had an excellent 2020 season. He was their best defensive lineman and led the team in sacks. There is little doubt in my mind that he is poised for another strong season, so Miami needs to extend him now. If they wait until after season it will cost more and there’s a chance he could sign elsewhere. They shouldn’t break the bank for him, so perhaps a 2 year $20M extension. 

Mike Gesicki – OK, I’m done spending Miami’s money. At least for now. For 3 reasons. One, the Patriots re-set the market for tight-ends this offseason by signing multi-year deals with both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry that averaged $12.5M/year. There is no way Gesicki is worth that kind of money based on his performance to date.

Two, while Gesicki was 5th amongst TEs last season in receiving yards, his total yards were only 703, which equates to just 47 yards per game in the 15 games he played. His 53 receptions averaged to only 3.5 per game. Neither of these stats say Pro Bowler or “must sign”. 

Consistency is also an issue for Gesicki, 44% of his yards and 42% of his receptions came in 3 games. That means for his other 12 games his per game averages were only 2.6 catches and 33 yards. Not exactly elite production worthy of a Smith/Henry type contract.

And three, Miami just used their 3rd round pick in this year’s draft on TE Hunter Long, who they are high on. Let’s see what he can do before considering a new deal for Gesicki. You also have to keep in mind the salary cap. Even if Gesicki has a breakout season in 2021, the Dolphins may be better off going with Long in the future and using the saved cap dollars elsewhere.

Enough about money. Let’s talk Tua, as he is arguably the key to Miami’s success this season. 

What a difference a year makes! A year ago, he was the 5th overall pick in the draft who was going to lead Miami to the promised land. But a lot of people jumped off the Tua bandwagon after his mediocre play in the 9 games he started last year.

But let’s be realistic. He was a rookie who because of Covid had no mini-camps or pre-season games last year. Not to mention he was coming off a significant hip injury that wasn’t 100% healed. 

When he finally got his opportunity to play, he was playing behind an inexperienced offense line plus he also had a banged up receiving corps. Who remembers the game last season when his starting wide receivers were Lynn Bowden and Mack Hollins? Yikes! 

Fast forward to this year where the big news was Tua throwing 5 interceptions on the 1st day of mini camp. This was not only a big story locally, but also nationally with the major sports networks focusing much attention on it.

The fact that much of the practice was held in a monsoon didn’t seem to matter to the Tua nay-sayers. Add in the fact that the Miami QBs were instructed by coaches to focus on making big plays, to throw the ball downfield and to force balls into tight windows. In other words, they were making many throws they likely wouldn’t even attempt in a regular season game. 

Is the jury still out on Tua? For sure. But many people are getting carried away with their criticism. They say he’s too small. Granted he’s only 6’ tall, but that is the same size as he was in college. Does he have a cannon for an arm? No, but it’s the same arm that made him an All-American in college. Is he as mobile as Lamar Jackson? No, but he’s lightyears more mobile than Dan Marino or Tom Brady ever were. Drew Brees had a “pretty good” career as a 6’ tall, immobile QB with a less than cannon-like arm, so let’s put a pause on all of the criticism.

What I think is going to make Tua special are the 2 attributes that I feel are the most important when it comes to having success as a quarterback. First is his football IQ. In other words, his ability to read defenses before & after the snap and to make quick & correct decisions. This is an area he could excel at.

Secondly, his passing accuracy. Accuracy is much more important than arm strength when it comes to success in the NFL and I envision him throwing quick, accurate darts.

How good will Tua be? I will give you a better answer come November, but I think you will see significant improvement in year 2 plus he will also have a much more talented offense around him. An improved O-line, healthy WRs and the addition of true playmakers in Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle should benefit Tua and the entire offense. Let’s give Tua a fair shake Dolfans.

Next up – Expectations for the Dolphins offense in 2021. 

Feel free to leave any comments below or at Twitter gfuchs@gregoryfuchs.