By JB Ellis
Whether it’s money ball or any given Sunday analytics has taken over the sports world. From the shift in baseball to going for it on 4th down in the NFL we are bombarded by what the analytics say to do.
The latest knock in the analytics argument was the Detroit Lions going for it on multiple 4th downs and short in the NFC Championship game against the San Francisco 49ers when taking a field goal and keeping momentum would of been putting the 49ers in a deeper hole having to crawl out of.
Having grown up a huge sports fan prior to the analytics boom I take a different approach to what the right decision is in these types of situations. In a competitive battle there is a ebb and flow to the contest, giving your opponent life when you have the ability to keep pouring it on changes momentum and can cause unnecessary losses or as someone who grew up in the 80’s a Tommy Lasorda Tums commercial.
When evaluating whether to go for it on 4th and short a coach has to take into account the score, what happens if the defense makes a stop, what 3 points added to the lead means to both sides and how confident he is in his offense to execute the play call (Coaches should always be confident that his team can execute so that’s the least points in my evaluation method.)
I look at the team that revolutionized analytics The Oakland A’s, money ball was a change in the way talent was evaluated and a way to construct an excellent team at a low-price tag. But those money ball teams although a mainstay in the playoffs won zero World Series. Analytics is a great tool but like anything in life has a time and a place, we can’t rely solely on computers to coach people, we need to put feel into how we see what’s developing in a game situation and take everything into account.
Coach Campbell did a great job in Detroit this season and his Lions reached heights not achieved by the Detroit Lions in ages. But the gambling by Coach Campbell and the analytics were flawed in the Dallas game and again in The NFC Championship game against the 49ers. While Coach is consistent on going for it or taking risks, he also by doing so is not getting the best opportunities for victory for his team.
In the Dallas game his defense was lights out and playing for the tie would have given him a great chance at victory without gambling on one play. In Santa Clara on Sunday a FG would have stolen momentum away from a team filled with all pros at multiple positions. I look for the Lions to rebound well next year with tremendous young talent, but getting to the next level will require more than just skill, it will require Coach Campbell to reevaluate his in-game decision making and learn from two huge losses that were winnable with the correct decisions.
