Now Back in the Thick of the Playoff Chase, Cleveland Has to Think Smart Come Deadline
Back when Corey Kluber went down in early May with a broken right forearm, many saw it as a sign that the Indians window had finally begun to close, now, they’re right in the thick of the AL Playoff Chase.
By Louis Addeo-Weiss
If someone asked you to describe the 2019 Cleveland Indians in one word thus far, you’d probably find yourself ascribing adjectives such as resilient, tough, and by way of how the standings have panned out, buoyant.
We’re about halfway through the 2019 season, and the Indians are currently sitting at 43-35, good enough for second place in the American League Central, and holding the second wild card spot, leading the Boston Red Sox and upstart-Texas Rangers by one game.
Baseball-reference reports the club has a 34.3-percent chance of making the playoffs with a 1.4-percent odds of winning the World Series. The team also boast a +24 run differential, outscoring their opponents 344-to-320.
Another look at baseball-reference justifies the resiliency title to this point.
| Name | Last Updated | Injury Type | Details |
| Jake Bauers | June 24, 2019 | Ankle | Was unavailable for Monday’s game against the Royals. |
| Carlos Carrasco | June 05, 2019 | Illness | Placed on 10-day injured list due to unspecificed blood condition. No timetable for return has been established. |
| Mike Clevinger | June 24, 2019 | Ankle | Landed on the 10-day injured list with a left ankle sprain. He is Expected to be activated prior to Friday’s game versus the Orioles. |
| Corey Kluber | June 18, 2019 | Forearm | Transferred to the 60-day injured list with a non-displaced fracture of his right ulna bone and is expected to be sidelined until at least sometime in August. |
| Dan Otero | June 22, 2019 | Shoulder | Placed on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation. He is expected to return to action close to the beginning of July. |
| Jefry Rodriguez | June 04, 2019 | Shoulder | Landed on the 10-day injured list with a right shoulder strain, and it is unknown how much time he will miss. |
| Danny Salazar | June 23, 2019 | Shoulder | Placed on the 60-day injured list while he recovers from arthroscopic right shoulder surgery. He suffered a setback in his recovery, and he is expected to remain away from the mound until sometime in July. |
| Bradley Zimmer | June 21, 2019 | Shoulder | Transferred to the 60-day injured list while recuperating from labrum surgery on his right shoulder. He is likely to be activated toward the beginning of July. |
Clevinger, Kluber, and Carrasco represent three-fifths of the Indians rotation that many had heralded them for over the past half-decade, so to see them playing as well as they have is a testament to manager Terry Francona and his coaching staff.
How well have they played?
Let’s take a brief look at the numbers.
As of June 25th, the team’s collective ERA of 3.81 ranks fifth in the majors, and their 3 complete games are tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for most in the sport.
While their starters ERA of 4.16 is only eleventh, their bullpen ERA of 3.18 is far-and-away the best in the majors, with their fellow Ohio brethren Cincinnati Reds ranking second at 3.38.
And on the topic of their bullpen, we get to the topic of this article, and that is the club’s plans as we approach the July 31st Trade Deadline.
As I wrote earlier this month, a team such as the Los Angeles Dodgers, whose path to the playoffs is far more well-defined than Cleveland, are a team who, despite their collective offensive output (112 tOPS+), and magnificent starting pitching (2.71 team ERA), the bullpen has been an issue that has plagued them in the season’s first half, as noted by a 4.22 ERA from their relievers.
Brad Hand, the Indians closer and arguably the consensus best relief pitcher in baseball at the moment, was a name I made mention of at the time as a possible fit for the Dodgers, as he would give them a left handed reliever in a bullpen that is predominantly right-handed.
Since linking Hand to Los Angeles, the Indians are 9-3, outscoring their opponents 70-43 in that stretch of time, which has led the narrative surrounding the club to shift from possible sellers to now, where many, including me, feel they should invest in this year.
Here’s how I’d suggest the club execute decisions at the deadline.
First, they’d be foolish not to sell Hand at the deadline. The left-hander is signed through 2020 with a team option for 2021, which seems highly likely to happen wherever Hands winds up in the next month-or-so.
The idea of having arguably the best relief pitcher in baseball for two-plus seasons could entice a team to give up quality prospects for his services.
As far as the club’s farm system is concerned, sites such as Clubhouse Corner have the Indians ranked 22nd out of 30 teams, and with the club set to see long time second baseman Jason Kipnis set to explore free agency in the fall, the aforementioned Dodgers could have a piece to the club’s liking with their number four overall prospect, shortstop/second baseman Gavin Lux.
Chosen twentieth overall by Los Angeles in the 2016 first-year player draft, Lux has hit .292 since going pro, highlighted by a .313/.375/.521 slashline this year at Double-A Tulsa.
A straight trade of Hand for Lux could be on the table, as many project Lux to be ready for the majors either later this year, or sometime in early 2020.
A good model for the 2019 Indians could be the likes of the 2017 Minnesota Twins.
While the 2017 Twins finished 85-77 and managed to advance to the AL Wild Card game, where they lost against the New York Yankees, it was the path they took to get there that makes the comparison apt.
Acquiring veteran Jaime Garcia from the Atlanta Braves on July 24th, a time when the club sat at the .500 mark at 49-49, the team then flipped Garcia to the New York Yankees six days later after going 1-4 over a five game stretch, watching their record fall to 50-53.
The point being made here is that the Twins quick buy-sell mode is something that has surrounded Cleveland all season, as many early in the year, even when the club experienced the loss of Danny Salazar and Mike Clevinger, were arguing the club invest in what has appeared to be an offensively challenged outfield.
The Indians, like Minnesota did with Garcia, tried upgrading their club as they saw fit when they signed Carlos Gonzalez to a minor league deal at the start of the regular season, but after just a .210 average, 49 OPS+, and 28.2-percent K-rate, the club released Gonzalez, and has since used a primary starting outfield of Oscar Mercado, Leonys Martin (since DFA’d), and Tyler Naquin, with additional production from the now-injured Jake Bauers.
As I wrote last week, the New York Mets Michael Conforto could present an obvious upgrade offensively, as he could slot in at right field while Naquin could move to his primary center field.
And should the Indians trade Hand, the club could still explore the idea of adding a late inning reliever, say a Tony Watson of the San Francisco Giants who has some past experience as a closer.
Should the club want to preserve some of the minor league resources, and should Kluber return in August, we could see Francona look to preserve the innings of say a Zac Plesac, who has pitched very well for the club as a starter (2.33 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 145 ERA+) since debuting on May 28th.
Whatever the Indians wind up doing come the trade deadline, should they continue to play well, they owe it to their fans to invest in 2019 with the hopes of giving the city its first World Series title since 1948.
