| There are countless things that can have a delicate impact on the predictive state of an NBA season yet only a handful that can throw the whole thing into flux and doubt. On Saturday, we saw one of the latter. An injury to LeBron James categorically counts as a bombshell-type moment because, well, how could it not, with the Los Angeles Lakers star always, with one sole exception in the last 11 years, able to find a way to be central to the discussion of who is going to win the championship. Now? It’s a different conversation altogether, one filled with uncertainty and speculation. And, for several other hopeful teams, the scent of opportunity beckons. There is a lot we don’t know about James’ high ankle sprain, sustained during a collision where Atlanta Hawks forward Solomon Hill tried to reach to steal the ball and rolled into James’ lower leg. The time frame on such injuries is vague; Klay Thompson returned from one within a couple of days to play in the 2018 NBA Finals, yet in many other cases, players have missed up to two months. James himself, despite screaming out in pain when it happened, was able to launch a 3-pointer, and hit it, moments later, before signaling to the bench that he was done and leaving the floor. According to FOX Sports Injury and Performance analyst Dr. Matt Provencher, high ankle sprains average out at 5.5 weeks of missed action, with a prediction of “some load management required in terms of overall playing time the first two weeks when (James) returns.” Given the timing of this – with now exactly two months to go until the official start of the playoffs – everything is up in the air. Because a three-week return (the lower end of the typical range) looks a lot different than five-and-a-half, which looks a lot different than seven. In the tightly-packed Western Conference, where just 3.5 games separate the teams from second to sixth, a Lakers plunge down into the lower seeded positions would be a significant shakeup of the postseason picture. After losing to the Phoenix Suns on Sunday, the Lakers sit in third place, just above the out-of-form Clippers and the quickly-heating Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers. With Anthony Davis still sidelined with a calf strain, the Lakers know they will have to play entirely differently without either of their alphas. “How we played before with them on the court, it’s totally opposite now, I think,” point guard Dennis Schroder said. Expect to see Schroder with the ball in his hands a lot more, and a faster-paced, scrappier style in the coming games. In truth, however, there’s a limit to how much you can do to make up for the loss of a four-time champion and 10-time NBA finalist – on top of the Davis absence. No one ever feels sorry for the oddsmakers and nor should they particularly, but it must be really tough to try to figure out who has the best prospects now, with so much left unknown. Could James come back stronger than ever, having benefitted from a brief pause? Following the shuttering of the 2019-2020 campaign due to COVID-19, he was imperious during the Lakers’ march to the title. “We’re encouraging him to take a mental break and recharge a little bit,” head coach Frank Vogel said. “So that when he comes back we’re into a stretch where we can make a playoff push and make some noise.” FOX Bet now lists the Brooklyn Nets as championship favorites at +250, with the Lakers in second place at +290. “The Lakers are going to fall,” FOX Sports NBA analyst Chris Broussard said, on First Things First. “If LeBron misses the next four weeks, that’s 15 games. They are going to drop, so it’s going to be much tougher. But assuming LeBron and AD get healthy, I still have the Lakers as the team to beat in the West.” James’ medical updates figure to be the most influential developments between now and the end of the regular season. The timing of his return, the nature of it, and what level of efficacy he has when he’s back on the court impacts everything in the West. What if James has just returned, the Lakers have dropped to a lowly seed and are due to play the sparkling Suns, or the Clippers, or the tough-as-nails Nuggets, all while he is supposed to be on a minutes restriction – in the first round? What if L.A. dropped as low as seventh, which would require an earlier start to the postseason, courtesy of the play-in tournament? While we’re in the habit of asking questions, what does everyone else who thinks they have a shot do now, with the trade window just three days from closing? There are potential moves to be made and some have already been done, while Monday added a new wrinkle with the Orlando Magic’s Aaron Gordon reportedly formally requesting a trade. The NBA revolves around its stars and there are none bigger than James. When something happens to affect him, the potential repercussions find their way into everyone’s thinking. This is an unwitting side-effect of an unfortunate injury, but the picture has shifted off an axis that was previously etched in purple-and-gold. And the plot just thickened, to become even more fascinating. Here’s what others have said … Nick Wright, First Things First: “This is the second most significant injury of LeBron James’ career. The earliest we’d see him on the floor is a month from now. … When we see him play again it’ll probably be for the 7-seed.” Liz Roscher, Yahoo Sports: “LeBron being out for ‘several weeks’ or ‘four weeks’ is better than ‘indefinitely.’ But it doesn’t make life any easier for the Lakers, who were already without their other star, Anthony Davis.” Dan Woike, LA Times: “The Lakers still could face new challenges. They’re still playing in a pandemic, the virus with tremendous ability to remove a player from your plans with just one nasal swab. And pushing forward with new players doing more, while it’s an opportunity for growth, it also has drawbacks for a contender. The goal for the Lakers remains the same — get to the playoffs healthy. It was always going to be hard. And it still is.” |
