Of course, Travis Kelce was wrong — aka joking — when he gave his most imaginative excuse yet as to why he couldn’t, or wouldn’t, talk about his who-knows-what-they-are-but-let’s-just-call-her-his-girlfriend, Taylor Swift.
Or was he?
The Kansas City Chiefs tight end was naturally cornered by reporters keen to get the scoop on his romantic status when the squad touched down in the Swiftie hotbed of Germany last week. Despite their best efforts, Kelce refused to spill any gossip about whether the recording icon would attend the game against the Miami Dolphins … (she didn’t).
“When I mentioned, or everybody knows, that she’s at the game … the Over-Under on my catches kind of goes up and down,” Kelce said. “The spread goes up and down. So, you know, I don’t want to mess with any of that stuff, so I’m going to keep it to myself.”
Wow, that’s an original one. But could it actually be true?
Who knows where Kelce is getting his info or if he was just deflecting the scuttlebutt in a particularly imaginative fashion? Yet, as absurd as the premise sounds that the mere presence of a songstress love interest could appeal to the oddsmakers’ soft side, there is at least a statistical starting point for a discussion.
In the four games this season where Swift has been in the house, Kelce has lit things up for an average of 108 yards per game. On the four occasions he has played while she has been missing from her customary position next to Kelce’s mom, Donna, or alongside Patrick Mahomes‘ wife Brittany, his mean has been just over 41 yards per, from 5.8 catches.
Given how sportsbooks covet detailed figures and prioritize profit, is there something cooking here?
“Sorry,” said Thomas Gable, director of race and sports at the Borgata in Atlantic City, with a laugh. “But even if we knew ahead of time whether she was going to be there, it is not going to affect the opening numbers on the game or on Travis Kelce’s props. Those things are based on a lot of data, not based on someone who is not on the field.”
So that’s that, then. Kind of. But wait …
“Having said that, because of how popular and famous she is, Taylor Swift being there may influence how people bet,” Gable added. “If someone knows she will be at the game, and feels Kelce will play well because of it, his props may start getting bet. Bookmakers can react to a market being bet if there is a lot of money coming in.”
But what about those stats? Dealing with info that appears to reflect a certain trend, but might actually be completely coincidental, is all part of the variable nature of the sports betting industry.
As fun as it would be to think that flexing for his new beau propels Kelce to superhuman feats, Gable said that in reality what has happened the past couple of months — including Kelce’s 14-yard showing in the victory over Miami in Frankfurt — is well within the bounds of standard variation.
Travis Kelce trying to impress Taylor Swift is great for Chiefs
Gable predicted it would hypothetically take much more, something like a full campaign’s worth of Kelce shining every time Swift is watching and underperforming every time she doesn’t, before the oddsmakers had viable cause for hesitation.
There is actually a little more depth to this than you’d imagine was possible, and there are some gray areas involved. Because the story is an enjoyable one to anyone with a sense of fun, you never know quite what to make of what is being said about it.
For example, Mahomes either admitted — or possibly it was merely a playful quip — that knowing Swift and a legion of her fans attended the Chiefs’ beatdown of the Chicago Bears in late September, he’d deliberately tried to funnel the ball into Kelce’s hands as much as possible.
“You can’t ignore this thing, and I honestly can’t understand why anyone would feel the need to get uptight about it,” FOX Sports betting expert Chris “The Bear” Fallica told me. “From a betting perspective, it is actually really interesting.
“Without any doubt, as weird as it sounds, this story can bring in new bettors. The whole demographic where the NFL probably doesn’t have as much hold as others is the young female market.
“If someone gets interested because they like Taylor Swift, and then enjoy the game, and puts $20 on Kelce to score a touchdown, that’s a new audience right there.”
A bye week looms for the 7-2 Chiefs, so the speculation and the cameras trained on the friends-and-family seats will have to be put on ice for a minute. All of this just gives more time for bettors, experts and oddsmakers to look a little bit deeper at things, if they are so minded.
The topic has already taken Fallica’s reserves of dedicated football research to a whole new level. If Swift is indeed the lucky charm, then it is fair to assume Chiefs fans would want her in attendance in Las Vegas were the team to make it back to the Super Bowl. The problem is, according to Fallica’s indefatigable sleuthing, she’s performing on tour in Japan the night before.
Is there a jet that could get her to Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium on time? Is this even something worth talking about? Is the whole thing a big old coincidence or further evidence of love’s mystical mysteries? Is their relationship even real?
All these questions, none of which we ever thought we’d be asking.
