For United States soccer fans, unpleasant as it might be, it is time to start thinking about the unthinkable. Missing out on the World Cup – that cruel, unexpected, but ultimately fully-deserved fate that befell the men’s national team during the 2018 campaign – has reared again as a genuine possibility that should have been comfortably avoided. Instead, a chilling ultimatum now looms. The U.S. began the 14-game qualification journey, from which the CONCACAF region’s top-three teams lock in a World Cup place, with some breathing room. Now, after one blip too many, there is none left. Wednesday’s clash with last-placed Honduras is important. But in the context of the four-game stretch that will decide the team’s fate, it is the equivalent of writing your name down on the examination paper correctly. It is a task that needs to be completed. It is hard to mess it up. To do so would mean all kinds of chaos. Anything other than a resounding victory would be disastrous to the squad’s hopes, but even clinching all three points doesn’t do anything to numb the reality of the gauntlet that lies ahead. “It’s not time to panic,” head coach Gregg Berhalter told reporters. “Other teams have been through this. We’ve been through it before. We just stick to the process and play hard, compete.” A look at the standings doesn’t tell the full story. Yes, the USMNT sits in second place with 18 points. And yes, even the fourth spot confers a possible second chance, with that finisher going into a playoff against the Oceania region’s winner, probably New Zealand. However, what remains ahead for Berhalter’s group couldn’t be more difficult. Like the U.S., Mexico is also on 18 points, but they have three home games remaining. Panama sits one point behind and hungrily poised, while even Costa Rica, back in fifth position, looms dangerously due to the make-up of its remaining schedule. For the U.S., things will close out in late March with three games: on the road to Mexico, a home clash with 2018 World Cup qualifier Panama, then a visit to Costa Rica, where they have never won. Four years ago, five points from the final five qualifying contests condemned the U.S. to watching the World Cup on television. Something similar this time — like beating Honduras, drawing with Panama and losing the road trips — would mean there is a strong possibility of the same outcome. Winning both home games might not be enough, either, depending on other outcomes. A situation where the team travels to Costa Rica for the last game of the campaign needing to get a result would generate gnawed fingernails throughout the American soccer community. The rise of Canada, a men’s soccer non-factor for the past four decades, has tightened the CONCACAF field and made things decidedly trickier. Canadian goalkeeper Milan Borjan made no secret of his delight at how Canada’s rise has increased pressure on the U.S. “They’re scared, the last four or five matches,” Borjan said. “They’ve been scared against us.” Over the stretch of seven World Cups between 1990 and 2014 — when the U.S. reached soccer’s biggest tournament every time — a natural sense of inevitability crept in. Of course the U.S. was going to make it, so the thinking went. The reason for that was simple – a whole new generation of fans couldn’t remember a time when they hadn’t. However, those teams of the past don’t get enough historical credit for their qualifying efforts. Getting to the World Cup isn’t guaranteed. It is not an ingrained right. No one is going to roll over for the U.S., quite the opposite. As the biggest target in the region, along with Mexico, they are a team everyone raises its game for. The doomed 2018 campaign should have been enough to dissuade any complacent notions, but apparently not. So how did we get to here? This was supposed to be a bold new era, unburdened by precedent, with a new coach in Berhalter and fresh players, fearless in both technique and mentality. The humiliation four years ago was supposed to have been a much-needed reset. It seemed that way for a while. There has never been a stronger collection of talent to wear a U.S. jersey, with the pipeline of American talent to big European leagues flowing rapidly and Major League Soccer on its strongest footing ever. Christian Pulisic is a high-profile star with Champions League winners Chelsea, while Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie have also proven their worth on club soccer’s biggest stage. No one doubts that if the U.S. does reach the World Cup, it would have a chance of making a splash against some of the world’s most accomplished teams. But that counts for nothing if they can’t get there. To this point, there have simply been too many mediocre results. There were ties on the road to El Salvador and Jamaica, both of whom are now of the reckoning. An early home draw with Canada didn’t help – and the Canadians have since surged clear at the top of the standings. A defeat to the same opponent last weekend was frustrating for more than one reason. One, in that it created this situation, where tension will fill the remainder of the campaign. Two, it seemed to be a return to the days of sticking the head in the sand and pretending nothing is wrong. Berhalter coming out and saying the U.S. was “dominant” in a game they lost 2-0 felt like when Jurgen Klinsmann and Bruce Arena confidently assured listeners all was well last time around, until, er, oops. The time for talk is done. So too, frankly, is the time for moral victories, perceived or otherwise. The U.S. needs to start winning its way toward the World Cup, not tiptoeing slowly in its general direction. It is running out of time, and chances, to do so. |
