By Louis Addeo-Weiss
Monday morning saw many still trying to comprehend and accept the sudden loss of basketball-icon Kobe Bryant. However, to quote former Beatle George Harrison, “all things must pass,” and with that, the sports world continued to push forward in the wake of one of the more sobering tragedies in recent memory, with C. Trent Rosecrans, who writes for The Athletic, broke the news of the Cincinnati Reds agreeing to terms with outfielder Nicholas Castellanos on a multi-year deal, later reported to be 4-years, $64 million.
Prior to this, many around baseball have applauded the Reds, particularly thanks to the work of general manager Dick Williams, for making attempts to upgrade the roster for in what looks to be a fascinating NL Central in 2020.
The team’s notable additions included veteran pitcher Wade Miley (2/$15M), infielder Mike Moustakas (4/$64M), longtime Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama (3/$21M), and now, the aforementioned Castellanos.
Where this most recent addition, the Reds now project to have an outfield of Castellanos in left, Akiyama in center, and late-season phenom Aristides Aquino in right, leaving Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel, Phillip Ervin, and Travis Jankowski all vying for playing time.
Right away, we expect the likes of Ervin and Jankowski to have limited roles on the 2020 Reds. In parts of 94 games last season, Irvin hit a respectable .271/.331/.466 with a 102 OPS+ (league average is 100), while playing above-average defense in left and center field, finishing the year with 6 defensive runs saved. The signing of Castellanos could make Ervin available via trade.
However, cutting playing time for the likes of Winker and Senzel, the team’s top prospect prior to the 2019 season, could be cause for concern for Cincinnati’s playoff hopes.
While never regarded as a great defender – with -21 defensive runs saved across 1525.2 innings – Winker’s offensive skill set is what has impressed, with a career .379 on-base percentage and 120 OPS+ in parts of three seasons.
It is Winker’s skillset and production that makes the addition of Castellanos a bit of a head-scratcher.
The question the Reds’ should be asking here is this: why spend $64 million on a player with an extended track record of poor defensive performance when we have a player in-house who produces offensively despite a similarly poor defensive track record?
Starting out as a third baseman, Castellanos’ former employer, the Detroit Tigers, moved him to the outfield during the later part of the 2017 season, where his poor defense continued. Since debuting in 2013, Castellanos has been worth -100 defensive runs saved and a worrisome -10.2 dWAR, according to baseball-reference.
His offense, however, has pleasantly improved, with a .286/.336/.504 slash and promising 120 OPS+ since the start of 2016. The Reds’ front office appears to have made this move given how Great American Ballpark plays for hitters and the showing Castellanos put on following a trade to the division rival Chicago Cubs.
In 51 games with Chicago at the end of the 2019 season, Castellanos blossomed into one of the better hitters in baseball, hitting 21 doubles, 16 home runs, and posting an OPS+ of 151.
Using baseball-reference’s park factor metrics, we see that Wrigley Field had a one-year batting score of 99 (sub-100 favors pitchers). As for Great American Ballpark, where the Reds play their home games, 2019 saw the stadium post a batting score of 101, not a massive difference, but reflective of how the park favored hitters more to Wrigley. Should Castellanos produce close to what he did in his brief tenure with the Cubs, the Reds would be more than okay with his sub-par defense.
However, Castellanos’ contract includes an opt-out following the 2020 season, which only furthers the ludicrosity of this deal.
We discussed earlier that the signing of Castellanos has spurred speculation about possible trades of Winker and Senzel, two affordable players with upside far greater than Castellanos.
If you’re a Reds’ fan, imagine this scenario – Senzel is traded, for which you get a commendable return, yet, Castellanos has a massive 2020 season and proceeds to opt-out at season’s end. Now, you’re left without a future asset in Senzel and the player you hoped would there for the next four years has gone elsewhere.
Doesn’t sound so enticing, does it?
