| The regular season is basically complete. The 20 playoff and play-in teams are set. The top seeds are locked up. But there’s one more order of business to take care of before we can move on to playoff basketball. Awards must be handed out. We’ll save debates about All-NBA teams and top rookies for a different space. Instead, let’s break down this season’s historic MVP race. By now you know the field. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid. Each one is having an incredible season, one that, in a typical year, would make each the runaway winner. Alas, only one player can be “most valuable.” I don’t have a vote (no, I’m not bitter about that at all, why do you ask?), but that doesn’t mean I can’t engage in this exercise. So let’s break down each player’s individual case. GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS There was a point when I thought I’d give Giannis my make-believe vote. He’s third in the league in scoring (29.9 points per game) and shooting a typically ridiculous 55.4%. His passing remains on point (5.8 assists), and, oh, by the way, he makes free throws now. He has drilled 72% of his attempts from the charity stripe, which basically makes him unstoppable. We know he’s bigger, stronger, faster and more ferocious than anyone else in the NBA. If you can’t rely on fouling him, then what are you supposed to do? Meanwhile, at the other end of the floor, Antetokounmpo remains one of the game’s most impactful forces. Brook Lopez’s months-long absence forced Giannis to protect the rim more this season than in years past, and he excelled; opponents have finished only 52.5% of their looks at the basket with Antetokounmpo in the vicinity, a top-10 mark. The Bucks’ overall defense has taken a step back (14th overall), but when Antetokounmpo plays, they defend at what is basically a top-five rate. Giannis is a superstar, probably the best player in the NBA (it’s him or Kevin Durant, even if J.J. Redick says otherwise) and the fulcrum of a team that looks poised to make another Finals run. JOEL EMBIID, PHILADELPHIA 76ERS Embiid’s case is a simple one. Right now, he’s leading the league in scoring (30.4 PPG), something no center has done since Shaq. He’s also posting a career-low turnover rate and a career-best assist rate. He’s probably the game’s best defensive player, too. That type of two-way dominance is incredibly rare. It’s why the Sixers are 11.3 points per 100 possessions better when he plays, according to Cleaning the Glass. Also, the fact that the Sixers hovered near the top of the Eastern Conference standings throughout the Ben Simmons saga is a testament to not only Embiid’s on-floor greatness but also his growth as a leader. “I don’t think people read into that enough,” Sixers coach Doc Rivers told my colleague, Melissa Rohlin, recently. “There’s nobody that went through more turmoil than this team. And it didn’t affect us. We kept playing. And that’s through your best player. I don’t think that’s given enough weight, in my opinion.” Rivers is right. Embiid also deserves credit for tweaking his game to make room for the arrival of James Harden. He is setting more screens and rolling to the hoop more than ever, all while posting up less. NIKOLA JOKIĆ, DENVER NUGGETS You don’t need fancy stats to explain why Jokić deserves this award — and I believe he does. You can start with the offense. Jokić’s average of 27 points per game is the league’s eighth-best mark, but what’s more impressive is the fact that he has put up all those points by shooting 58.1% from the field. He’s actually leading the league in true shooting percentage (which factors in free throws and 3-pointers), and he’s making shots at a level that’s almost unprecedented for someone who dominates the offense as much as Jokić does (Steph Curry is the only player with a usage rate of more than 30% to post a higher true shooting percentage in a single season). And none of that even touches on Jokić’s top skill: his passing. My God, the passing! He’s the best passing big man in the league (his 7.9 assists per game is good for eighth overall). He’s the best passing big man of all time. He might be the best passer in the league, big or little. You can probably throw him into the top tier of the best passers — big or small — of all time. Jokić is a 6-foot-11, probably close to 300-pound, point guard. His 3-point shooting has taken a bit of a dip this season (33.7%), but he’s still an unstoppable force. How do I know he’s unstoppable? Because the Nuggets, a team missing two max-salary players due to injuries (Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray), are still a top-10 offense, and when Jokić is on the floor, they score at a rate better than that of the top-ranked Utah Jazz. The Nuggets also defend at a top-10 mark, which would seem to indicate that Jokić is a more impactful defender than many might assume. He isn’t locking down opposing scorers or swatting shots at the rim, but he’s huge, he’s smart, and he inhales rebounds (13.7 per game, second overall), all of which go a long way in preventing opponents from getting easy looks. He has also played more games (73) than Antetokounmpo (65) and Embiid (66), and Jokić has led a limited Nuggets squad to a nearly identical record as those of the Sixers and Bucks. Yes, the Nuggets have struggled against top teams (only six wins against teams currently over .500), but 47 wins for a team rolling with a starting lineup featuring Monté Morris and the somehow-only-35-years-old Jeff Green is an incredible feat. And that’s all Jokić. How do I know this? Because the Nuggets are 18.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. Basically, they’re the first-place Phoenix Suns with him and the last-place Houston Rockets without him. That’s not a weird computer formula. It’s basic math. Antetokounmpo and Embiid have had Hall of Fame seasons. Jokić has played more games than either of them, and in those games, he has been just a little bit better. |
