By Louis Addeo-Weiss
With baseball’s trade deadline now less than three weeks away, teams with playoff aspirations will look to scour the market in hopes of upgrading their team for a potential World Series run.
One of the names being thrown around is New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard, and according to MLB.com, teams such as the Houston Astros, San Diego Padres, and the Milwaukee Brewers have all emerged as those expressing interest in Syndergaard.
But despite interest from these teams, trading Syndergaard now wouldn’t be in general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s best interest.
For starters, the old adage is to trade a player, pitcher or position player, when they’re playing at a high-caliber level as this would help the club earn more for their prized player.
But from a statistical standpoint, 2019 has been Syndergaard’s worst season in his professional career.
Through 17 starts, the man Mets fans have affectionately come to refer to as ‘Thor’ has posted a 6-4 record while posting a career worst 4.68 ERA and 87 ERA+ (league average being 100).
2019 has also been the first year in Syndergaard’s career in which he is striking out less than a batter per inning, as noted by a still respectable 8.6 K/9. In fact, looking back at the past few seasons, Syndergaard’s declining strikeout rate traces itself back to 2017, where his 10.7 K/9 in 2016 fell to 10.1 in ‘17 and 9.0 in ‘18. This season, Syndergaard has 101 strikeouts across 105.2 innings pitched.
What makes Syndergaard’s consistent decline in inducing swings-and-misses is the velocity he generates on his fastball.
Regarded by many as having some of the best ‘pure-stuff’ in the sport, Statcast tells us that Syndergaard’s average fastball velocity of 97.9 is 10th in the majors, with the likes of Jordan Hicks (101.1 ), Joe Kelly (98.4), Jose Alvarado (98.4), Felipe Vasquez (98.1), and Trevor Rosenthal (98.0) ranking above him.
Hicks, a second-year reliever with the St. Louis Cardinals, is out for the rest of 2019 and majority of the 2020 season due to recently undergoing Tommy John Surgery, Joe Kelly, who recently joined the Los Angeles Dodgers on a three-year deal, has pitched to a 5.28 ERA, 80 ERA+, and posted -0.8 WAR in his first year in LA, which reflects a trend in hard throwers experiencing struggles in 2019.
And while numbers such as these are cause for concern, it is important to note that Syndergaard has had his fair share of injuries, particularly since the start of 2017.
The Mets right-hander was limited to just seven starts in 2017, landing on the 60-day disabled-list with a right lat strain. According to FOX Sports, Syndergaard spent two separate stints on the 10-day injured list with hand, foot, and mouth disease, something many feel he captured following the Mets game at Williamsport, home of the Little League World Series, in 2018, as well as a strained ligament in his right index finger. 2019 has been no different, and arguably a major reason as to why he has struggled to the degree he has, as he missed time in June with a hamstring strain.
Trading a struggling pitcher whose battled injuries for most of his career would be counterintuitive on the Mets part, with the only saving grace being the ensuing years of control.
Not a free agent until after the 2021 season, Syndergaard is under team control for another two seasons, which would be attractive to a number of teams looking for affordable and controllable starting pitching moving forward.
Eligible for arbitration after this season, the Mets are currently paying Syndergaard $6M, but expect that number to rise as he approaches arbitration.
If the front office wishes to move Syndergaard now though, they need to bank on him pitching well in the three weeks prior to the July 31st deadline.
Over his last three starts, the right-hander, despite posting a 2-0 record, has allowed 20 hits in 16.2 innings pitched, walked 8, struck out 13, and posted a 5.94 ERA. Hitters during that stretch have hit .299 with a .377 on-base percentage and a .504 slugging percentage.
Never known for holding runners, Syndergaard has also allowed 9 stolen bases in those three starts and 19 total. For his career, base runners have an 86.6 percent rate against Syndergaard, which ranked 14th in the sport between 2015-18, with his 97 stolen bases against in that span ranking second to Jon Lester of the Chicago Cubs.
Should pitch well between now and the deadline, one shouldn’t put it past the Mets front office to push a trade for Syndergaard as small sample size means everything at this time of year, though a strong end to the 2019 season could net the club a great return in the offseason given his affordability and two years of control.
The way in which the Mets handle Syndergaard will definitely be something to watch for in the coming weeks, but as we’ve seen many times before, don’t be shocked if they totally botch this one the same they did with Zack Wheeler, who pitched to a 1.68 ERA across 8 starts prior to waiver-trade deadline in 2018, or the failed Carlos Gomez ‘trade’ in 2015.
