Nearly fifty games into the 2019 season, and the Washington Nationals, once the consensus best team in the NL East, sit in fourth place in the division with a dismal record of 19-30. If this continues, here’s what their poor play could mean come the July 31st Trade Deadline.
By Louis Addeo-Weiss
During Bryce Harper’s seven-year tenure in D.C., 2012-2018, a once second-division Washington Nationals team, transformed into what many felt were a legit World Series contender. The emergence of Harper, the 2012 NL Rookie of the Year and 2015 league MVP, along with additions of Max Scherzer, who has since won two Cy Young Awards since joining the once-Montreal Expos, 2009 first-overall pick Stephen Strasburg, third basemen Anthony Rendon, and veteran presences Ryan Zimmerman and $126M man Jayson Werth, filled fans in D.C. with excitement in their quest for the cities first World Series win since the days of Walter Johnson and the Washington Senators in 1924.
But in that span of time, two themes have run consistent throughout the organization – failure to live up to expectations in conjunction with organizational instability.
Under the tutelage of veteran manager Davey Johnson, known for guiding the 1986 Mets to victory over the Boston Red Sox in one of the more memorable fall classics in the last half century, 2012 was the team’s first winning season since moving to the beltway in 2005.
That year saw them win 98 games, only to lose to the defending World Champion St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series. Controversy surrounding the team that season centered on the decision to shutdown ace Stephen Strasburg in early September in hopes to conserve his innings following Tommy John Surgery at the end of the 2010 season.
2013, while not a terrible season, the team’s 86 wins were a far cry from the expectations they had established for themselves, as they missed the playoffs and saw manager Johnson retire.
Under Matt Williams in 2014, the team rebounded to win 96 games and run away with the NL East, only again to lose in the Division Series, this time to the eventual World Champion San Francisco Giants.
Jordan Zimmerman, an All-Star in 2014 and author of a no-hitter on the final day of the regular season, was removed from a Game 2 with two outs in the ninth inning and the team clinging to a 1-0 lead. Closer Drew Storen, would blow the lead in a game the team lost 2-1 in 18 innings that lasted six hours and twenty-three minutes, the longest postseason game until Game 3 of the 2018 World Series.
2015 would continue the trend of playoff-no playoff, as the team went 83-79, ultimately ending Williams brief tenure with the team, as the 2014 NL Manager of the Year was fired following the season. 2015 did see Max Scherzer, recently signed for 7-years/$210M, author two no-hitters, one June 20th where he came within a strike of a perfect game before hitting the Pirates Jose Tabata, and on the penultimate day of the season, one highlighted by a career-best 17-strikeouts, no walks, and a game score of 104. Bryce Harper, the team’s right fielder, finally lived up to the expectations placed on him throughout the baseball world, posting a .330 average, .649 slugging percentage, a career best 43 home runs, and 10 WAR to unanimously win the NL MVP.
Come 2016, and the team, now managed by veteran skipper Dusty Baker, would continue the trend established in 2012, as they won 95 games and the division, only again to lose to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Division Series.
2017 came and with a 97-win season, bounce back from Harper, who rebounded from a .241 average in 2016 to hit .319 in 2017, the team found themselves in the playoffs for a second consecutive year. But, as the narrative had been written, the team would again, for the fourth time in four playoff appearances, lose in the Division Series to the Chicago Cubs, a team coming off their first World Series win since the days of Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance in 1908.
Dusty Baker, who, as you may have guessed, was soon fired after the series, found himself in the midst of controversy when he announced that Stephen Strasburg would be unable to start the series’ Game 4 due to flu-like symptoms, a report soon proven false by the pitcher as he went out and threw 7-shutout innings, striking out 12 and only allowing 3 hits.
Come 2018, and the team would be on their fourth manager since the start of the 2012 season as Dave Martinez, longtime bench coach to Joe Maddon in Tampa Bay and Chicago, assumed the helm, only to lead the team to a sub-par 82-80 record, failing to make the playoffs. 2018 would also prove to be Harper’s last season in D.C., and one many felt took too much attention away from the team’s play on the field.
Now, in 2019, and with the team seemingly regressing even further, it begs the question I asked at the outset, what would a Nationals sell-off look like at this year’s trade deadline, but first, let’s look at some of the numbers behind their slow start.
As their record currently sits today, baseball-reference has them at a 5.4-percent chance of making the playoffs, a mark that, for my money, seems a bit generous.
The team’s attendance, slightly north of 660,000, ranks 11th of 15 teams in the National League. The team’s bullpen ERA of 6.89 is far and away the worst mark in the majors, with the second closest team, the neighboring Baltimore Orioles, nearly a full run lower at 6.01, respectively. According to the website Team Rankings, the Nationals run differential of -38 ranks 24th in the sport, tied with Seattle Mariners respectively.
Anthony Rendon, the team’s third basemen and potential free agent at season’s end, is the most likely to moved at or before the deadline. So far this season, Rendon is slashing .325/.423/.675 with an OPS+ of 183. Should Rendon continue to play at or even close what has the makings to be a career year, he should net the Nats a healthy return at the deadline. The New York Yankees could present a possible fit, as they’ll be without Miguel Andujar for the remainder of the 2019 season after he underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum. The Minnesota Twins, a team currently pacing the American League Central at 32-16, could make room for Rendon as well, as recently signed utility-man Marwin Gonzalez, who has started in 30 of the teams 48 games this year at third base, could still be utilized at other positions such as the corner outfield spots and first base.
Should Miguel Sano, the team’s once touted third base prospect, who recently returned from injury, continue to display signs of unpredictable play, expect Minnesota to jump at the chance of acquiring Rendon.
While he won’t fetch much in return, veteran Howie Kendrick would be a nice addition for a team looking for some depth off the bench. Kendrick, who has the ability to play second, third, first, and the corner outfield spots, is enjoying a solid bounce back from an injury-shortened 2018, hitting .304 with 7 home runs and a 131 OPS+ in just 126 plate appearances.
Kendrick would be a nice addition to a Yankees team looking to rest players ahead of the postseason, the same of which can be said for the division rival Atlanta Braves, who will look to give the likes Austin Riley, Ronald Aćuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies some scheduled days off prior to the start of the postseason.
Should he continue to play well, veteran outfielder Gerardo Parra will most certainly be moved. Expect a team like the Cleveland Indians, who may both buy and sell at the deadline, to be in on Parra to get some more production out of their offensively feeble outfield.
As far as the pitching staff is concerned, three of the team’s five starting pitchers, Scherzer, Strasburg, and recently signed Patrick Corbin, are playing under contracts valued at $126, $175, and $210M, with Corbin being in just the first of a six-year deal, so moving either of those three would prove difficult and provide limited returns, unless the team wishes to eat at least half of each respective player’s salary.
While Scherzer has looked solid thus far, posting a 3.41 ERA, a league-leading 96 strikeouts, sport best 2.32 FIP, and already amassed 2 WAR according to baseball-reference, the team is just 2-9 in his 11 starts this year, leaving Mad Max with misleading 2-5 record. The team owes Scherzer approximately $84.2M over 2020-21, so selling him this deadline to a contender with promises to eat half of that salary looks to be a steal, especially given the fact that he’ll be 35 in July.
As for Strasburg, who can opt out after 2020 when he’ll be 32, a time in which most teams back away from large contracts for pitchers, trading Strasburg with similar intentions as presented with Scherzer would provide teams the incentive to shell out big-name prospects for a pitcher of his caliber.
If both are made available, expect the Yankees and the Phillies, among a myriad of other possible contenders looking for starting pitching, to be in on the baseball’s next arms race.
Sean Doolittle, the team’s closer, who, prior to last night, had seemed to be the only relief pitcher on the team to have pitched well, pitching to a 1.71 ERA before allowing 4 earned runs without recording an out, seems to be the only reasonably priced option available on the pitching side. Doolittle is in the final year of a team-friendly six-year/16.5M deal he signed while still with the Oakland Athletics during the 2014 season, but has a team option for the 2020 season, which could entice teams to seek out his services. Look for a team like the Milwaukee Brewers, who have a team bullpen ERA of 4.27 as of May 22nd, to be in the mix, or even the Los Angeles Dodgers who could use Doolittle in a setup role for closer Kenley Jansen, as well as insurance in case Jansen, struggles down the stretch.
Don’t expect GM Mike Rizzo to pursue trades for young outfielders such as Victor Robles and Juan Soto, who, despite their early season struggles, Soto’s highlighted by a slight rise in K-rate from 20-percent to 27.1-percent from 2018 to ‘19, and Robles low on base of .301, the team views them as building blocks for the next core of Nationals players.
With the way that things are currently taking shape, it appears that 2019 already looks to be a lost year for the Nats, and presumably, the team may find themselves soon searching for another manager, and begin the process of retooling their roster for future contention.
