Expected Goals

Firstly, I want to once again thank you for taking time to read this article and hope you all have had a good week. I have kept it brief. 

For us and our members we once again had a profitable one and I am also pleased to say that the FREE BET in last week’s column was a WINNER, we advised over 2.5 goals in the Hertha Berlin match and so when the third goal went in after 61 minutes we were able to put the kettle on, sit back, knowing it was money in the bank. We used our XG model to help us decide on this selection. 

I eluded last week to the fact that gone are the days where you can just look at bare stats and expect to win consistently, there is much more too it and like ourselves many handicappers and syndicates have built proprietary models with Expected Goals (XG) playing a huge part in what we do. 

So, what is Expected Goals’ and how does it help us win? 

Well firstly goals in football are rare events, with just over 2.5 goals scored on average per game. 

Therefore, the historical number of goals does not provide a large enough sample to predict the outcome of a match. This means with the Expected Goals method we use shots on target and total number of shots as the next closest stats to predict the number of goals.

However, not all shots have the same likelihood of ending up in the back of the net. For instance, a shot coming from a through ball has a much likelier chance of being a goal than a shot from a cross in most cases. Each model can differ depending on how the owner’ perceives the quality of that chance.

You also have to look at the quality of the player, another variable to consider as well as others. 

Intrigued? There is of course so much more too it… 

For more information and an in-depth explanation of this, please send me your email via a DM on Twitter. 

You can follow me on twitter at PRO SOCCER BETS CLUB @prosoccerbets2 

THIS WEEKS FREE BET 

1st June German Bundesliga

KOLN v LEIPZIG over 3/3.5 goals  Odds/Line (-110) 

Have a Great Week !

Jay

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