Path To The CFP For Each Contender

The big question when the College Football Playoff selection committee unveiled its rankings Tuesday night: Would we see a new No. 1?

The answer ultimately was no, as Georgia remained No. 1, followed by No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Washington and No. 4 Florida State. Ohio State, which lost to Michigan on Saturday, dropped to No. 6, behind No. 5 Oregon.

With the latest CFP rankings, there is a very clear delineation between those teams that can simply win their respective conference championships, and those that need to win and also get some help.

Let’s take a look.

Win and you’re in … probably

No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Washington and No. 4 Florida State should all make the CFP with wins.

I’d like to think the CFP committee would be loath to demote one of these teams for simply winning a league title — no matter how tight the final score. Each would not only be a Power 5 champion, but a 13-0 one.

Michigan battles Iowa for Big Ten crown

But CFP chairman Boo Corrigan didn’t exactly throw ringing support in FSU’s direction.

“You know, they’re a different team. It’s pretty obvious, with Jordan Travis not playing and Tate Rodemaker playing, they’re a different team, just as anyone would be if they lost their quarterback in that situation,” Corrigan said. “But they were able to get a win down in Gainesville. They were able to put up 24 points. Defense let up 13. There was a safety.

“We’re just evaluating it at this point where they are with the body of work throughout the season, while a topic of discussion, as it should be, as injuries should be at this point, and player availability, if you will, it’s a big part of the conversation.”

ACC title game preview: Louisville vs. Florida State

Please help us

No. 5 Oregon, No. 7 Texas and No. 8 Alabama must win their respective conference title games for a chance to be selected for the CFP. But that’s the only thing these programs have in common with the top four as the committee sees their rankings to date.

Oregon and Alabama are in a much better position to earn entry, though, as each would have to defeat a 12-0 foe.

The Ducks also will get the opportunity to avenge their only loss of the regular season against UW on Friday night. It’s clear not just in the rankings, but in Corrigan’s comments, that the committee valued Oregon’s home win against Oregon State last weekend.

Oregon favored against undefeated Washington in Pac-12 title game

“Specifically, Oregon continues to impress,” he said, “the win over Oregon State, holding a team to seven points that’s averaging 34 points. Again, a lot of respect for Ohio State being No. 6. A really good team, but to your point, it’s a one-possession game on the road, but the committee ranked Oregon 5 and Ohio State 6.”

Most believe the Ducks have looked like the better team since their 36-33 loss in Seattle in Week 7. A win for the Ducks doesn’t guarantee a spot in the CFP, but it could be enough to simply slide the Ducks into the CFP spot at No. 3 or No. 4.

The Tide are in a similar position. With a win against Georgia on Saturday, no one, especially this CFP committee, will care much that Alabama lost to Texas in Tuscaloosa earlier this season. Stopping the two-time defending national champions in the midst of a 29-game winning streak would be more than enough for a 12-1 SEC champion to earn entry into the CFP — perhaps even as the No. 1 seed.

Texas is in a difficult spot entering Big 12 title game

Give us chaos

Among those still with a chance to make the CFP — provided that upsets rule in the Pac-12, SEC and ACC title games — are Texas and Ohio State.

The Longhorns need to beat No. 18 Oklahoma State just to be considered, and a win won’t get them in so much as keep them in the conversation. If anything, Texas needs to decisively win its first Big 12 title since 2009 to impress the committee, and to remind everyone that this is the team that beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. And an Alabama win over Georgia wouldn’t hurt Texas’ feelings at all.

But at least the Longhorns have a chance to put a conference title on their résumé. Among these eight contenders, only the Buckeyes will be sitting at home this weekend. They’ll be rooting for carnage to have a chance of playing in their second straight CFP without A) beating Michigan in the regular season, B) making a conference title game appearance.

For the Buckeyes to get the pass to the CFP, Texas, Oregon, Florida State and Alabama would all need to lose their games this weekend. That could allow them to join Georgia, Michigan and Washington in the CFP.

Ohio State drops to No. 6 in CFP rankings

The College Football Playoff Rankings as of Nov. 28.

Georgia (12-0)
Michigan (12-0)
Washington (12-0)
Florida State (12-0)
Oregon (11-1)
Ohio State (11-1)
Texas (11-1)
Alabama (11-1)
Missouri (10-2)
Penn State (10-2)
Ole Miss (10-2)
Oklahoma (10-2)
LSU (9-3)
Louisville (10-2)
Arizona (9-3)
Iowa (10-2)
Notre Dame (9-3)
Oklahoma State (9-3)
NC State (9-3)
Oregon State (8-4)
Tennessee (8-4)
Tulane (11-1)
Clemson (8-4)
Liberty (12-0)
Kansas State (8-4)

More on the College Football Playoff Rankings

Tuesday’s reveal was the fifth of six rankings announcements, with the final Top 25 to be unveiled on Sunday morning.

The top four teams will compete in the CFP semifinals, which will be held on Jan. 1 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, and at the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. The national championship game will be held on Jan. 8 in Houston.

College Football Rankings remaining 2023 schedule