Time to Sell: Another Rough Year in the City of Queens
By Louis Addeo-Weiss
While the off-season led many a Mets fans to believe the team was bound for contention in 2019, the results this year suggest otherwise. The first year under player agent turned general manager Brodie Van Wagenen has not gone as planned.
The team’s 34-38 record has them in 3rd place in a National League East that has seen the Atlanta Braves quickly separate themselves from the rest of the pact. According to baseball-reference, New York currently has a 4.4-percent chance of making the playoffs.
New York’s poor play can be attributed to inconsistency within their starting rotation, poor performance out of their bullpen, and the fact that Van Wagenen and company fielded a team primarily of aging players, and in an era when baseball, more than ever, is a young-man’s game, the Mets have yet to catch onto this idea, as reflected by their play thus far.
Their -28 run differential is 20th across the majors, as the team has experienced a bevy of injuries to what looked to be a strong offense heading into the season.
Additions of veterans Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos, Jed Lowrie, Jeurys Familia, and Edwin Diaz haven’t done much to ease the tension surrounding a team many consider to be among the most ineptly-run in the sport.
Cano is off to the worst start of his career, posting a slashline of .240/.288/.385, a career low OPS+ of 82, and -0.3 wins above replacement. The former all-star second basemen has also already twice been on the league’s injured list.
Once one of baseball’s brightest and most likeable stars, Cano’s reputation and career have taken a nosedive since the 2018 season when he was suspended 80-games for PED-use while still with the Mariners.
After 2019, Cano is owed $24M each year until the end of 2023.
Closer Edwin Diaz, who was acquired in a trade with Cano in the off-season, has struggled as well, though he could still merit some serious trade value come July.
Diaz’s struggles are one reason why the Mets’ bullpen ERA of 5.39 is tied with Seattle for 28th worst in the majors, with only the Orioles (5.96) and division rival Nationals (6.27) having worse ERAs.
His 1.36 WHIP is the highest such mark of his career, and 2019 is the first year in which he has allowed more hits (31) than innings pitched (28.2). However, teams should still be encouraged by his low walk rate (2.5 per 9 IP) and still elite 14.1 K/9 rate.
Team’s like the Los Angeles Dodgers and the aforementioned Braves could use Diaz, though the team may feel a sense of reluctance to trade within the division.
Jed Lowrie, who was signed in the offseason with the hope of being the team’s everyday third basemen, has yet to appear in a game this season, as the team has had to resort to veteran Todd Frazier, J.D. Davis, and Jeff McNeil.
Davis and McNeil have also split time in left field given the injury to Brandon Nimmo and poor play of offseason acquisition Keon Broxton, who has since been DFA’d and acquired by the Baltimore Orioles.
McNeil appears to be a long term fit for the team, whether that’s at his natural second base, or third base or the corner outfield spots. Since debuting last July, McNeil has a 135 OPS+ and 4.3 WAR, with a demonstrated ability to hit for average while not striking out, as noted by a mere 11.2-percent K-rate across 239 plate appearances.
While he may have trade value given he won’t be a free agent until after 2024, expect the Mets to hold onto him.
Though just recently signed to a two-year deal prior to the season, Wilson Ramos could find himself in another uniform before August 1st. The veteran catcher has had a solid season offensively, posting a 103 OPS+ and a respectable .345 on base percentage.
The Dodgers, a team whose offensive production via their catchers ranks 26th according to runs scored, could be in play for Ramos, though they made decide to lean on veterans Austin Barnes and Russell Martin.
Michael Conforto, the team’s right fielder, and arguably their best pure hitter, could be another name moved before the deadline.
The switching hitting Conforto has a 135 OPS+, good enough for second to rookie Pete Alonso (151), and has shown an ability to take his walks, as seen by his already 40 bases on balls and a .380 on-base percentage.
Though he may command a decent price, should a team like the Cleveland Indians, who sit only 1.5 games out of the AL’s second wild card spot, continue to tread water, adding Conforto to their lineup would serve as a huge boost to a team who ranks 19th in on-base percentage (.319) from their right fielders and 18th in slugging (.432).
As far as the starting pitching is concerned, the team could move the oft-injured Noah Syndergaard.
Recently placed on the injured list with a low-grade right hamstring strain, Syndergaard is in the midst of the worst season of his career. In 15 starts, the man they call Thor has a 4.55 ERA, career low 8.8 K/9, career worst but still respectable 3.61 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), and career low ERA+ of 89.
While these numbers may not give the Mets the return they would’ve hoped in moving Syndergaard, we’ve seen before how acquiring a big name pitcher in the midst of a down year has managed to be a difference maker for some teams, with the most recent example being Justin Verlander’s August 31st trade from the Detroit Tigers to eventual world champion Houston Astros in 2017.
After pitching to a respectable 3.82 ERA in 2017 while with Detroit, Verlander turned into the Verlander of old after being traded to Houston, posting a 1.06 ERA in 5 starts, winning each decision, and striking out 43 in 34 innings pitched.
Oddly enough, the Astros, the team who acquired Verlander, are in need of another starter as the deadline approaches, and if they made it work with one power pitcher, adding Syndergaard to that mix could only further make them World Series favorites in the American League.
Met fans can expect Jacob DeGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner who was recently locked up prior to the start of the season, to stay with the club in the years to come, but the Mets would only further exude the notion of themselves as a poorly run franchise were they not to listen in on offers for pitchers Zach Wheeler and Stephen Matz.
Wheeler, who ended 2018 strong, posting a 1.68 ERA over his last 11 starts of the season, while limiting hitters to a .179 average, has struggled to start 2019, with his 52 earned runs allowed leading all qualified National League starters.
Like the Orioles, who made the mistake of holding onto third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado for too long before dealing him to the Dodgers last July, many around the sport feel the Mets should’ve traded Wheeler before last year’s deadline, which will only hinder the return, if any, that they may get for him.
Matz, on the other hand, has pitched to a 103 ERA+, compared to Wheeler’s mark of 82, and has two more years of control beyond 2019.
Crosstown rival New York Yankees could be in the market for starting pitching depth, though the team already features three left-handers in their rotation with J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia, and the recently acquired James Paxton. With Sabathia expected to retire following the 2019 season, Matz could provide the team with a controllable left-hander in the coming years ahead.
With the deadline still more than a month away, the Mets are forced with the task of determining whether or not they want to buy or sell, but as it currently looks, the writing is already on the wall indicating 2019 will be another wasted year in the borough of Queens.
