By Louis Addeo-Weiss
If you’re thinking about baseball in the early-mid 1970s, one of the first clubs that comes to mind are the great Oakland Athletics’ teams. Winning three consecutive World Series from 1972-1974, the club won primarily on the strength of their starting pitching, with the likes of Ken Holtzman, Vida Blue, and of course, the colorful Catfish Hunter headlining the starting staff of the sport’s most successful franchise during this era. Not to mention, the club was renowned for their strong bullpen highlighted by closer and future Hall of Famer Rollie Fingers (2.34 ERA, 318 SO, 140 ERA+, 2.28 FIP from ‘72-’74).
Vida Blue would pitch in parts of 17 seasons, amassing 209 wins, a career 3.27 ERA, MVP and Cy Young award honors in 1971, and 45.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), though he’d never sniff the Hall of Fame.
As for his teammate, the aforementioned Hunter, his numbers bear some similarities, though with an outcome never achieved by Blue.
Winning 224 games across his 15-year career, authoring a perfect game in 1968, as well as winning the AL Cy Young award in 1974, Hunter was voted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame on his third ballot in 1987.
Many in the saber-metric community point to Hunter’s election as a flaw in the voting process, as his 40.9 (36.3 from pitching alone) WAR ranks 205th all-time amongst starting pitchers, clearly not the sign of someone deserving of baseball immortality.
A deeper look at Hunter’s numbers give further justification for why he simply didn’t do enough to merit induction into Cooperstown.
According to baseball-reference, his 7-year peak WAR of 34.9 is well-below the HOF average of 49.9 for starting pitchers, and his previously mentioned 40.9 WAR ranks 165th amongst starting pitchers, where the average total for HOF starters is listed at 73.2.
Using the metric ERA+, which gauges a pitcher’s ERA relative to the rest of the league, Hunter owns a career ERA+ of 104. That’s the same as current New York Yankees pitcher J.A. Happ, and ranks as the third lowest mark for any pitcher inducted into the Hall of Fame. Hank O’Day, whose ERA+ of 96 being the lowest, earned most of his necessary credentials for induction into Cooperstown as an umpire.
An argument can be made that Hunter’s candidacy and eventual election were spurred on by the fact that his career was cut short due to diabetes, a condition he was diagnosed with prior to the 1978 season, along with chronic arm problems that began around the same time.
Hunter would later be diagnosed with and tragically died from complications of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease in 1999 at the age of 53.
Now, this isn’t a means to kickstart a campaign to remove Hunter from the hallowed halls of Cooperstown. No, this is a mere thought-experiment on the lines of “well, (so-and-so) is in, then so should (so-and-so).”
Enter David Wright.
As was the case with Hunter, Wright’s career was cut short due to injury.
Rather than diabetes, Wright’s career was halted due to chronic spinal stenosis, a condition which he was diagnosed with during the 2015 season.
And while Hunter’s career is impressive in many respects, between the two, Wright put together a far more convincing case for the hall, as suggested by the numbers.
Wright’s 50.4 career WAR ranks 23rd among third basemen, and his 40.2 7-year peak is right around the average for HOF third basemen mark of 43.
In fact, among all number 5’s (third base placing on the positional order,) Wright’s WAR7 is good enough for 15th all-time, and higher than hall of famers John McGraw (39.1) and Jimmy Collins (38.5).
The average WAR for Hall of Fame third basemen 68.4 is far above Wright’s aforementioned 50.4 total, though one can argue that had he been healthy, Wright would’ve come close to matching or slightly exceeding that mark.
By the standards of many who vote on behalf of the Baseball Writers’ Association, a 5 win player over the course of 8-10 years should merit enough induction into the Hall, and Wright was just that.
From 2005-13, Wright amassed 45.1 WAR, highlighted by a career best 8.3 WAR in 2007 where he finished fourth in the NL MVP vote, averaging out to 5 wins per season.
Wright’s 45.1 WAR during this time, was second among all third basemen in baseball, with Adrian Beltre (47.5) holding a slight lead over the former New York Mets’ team captain.
Many feel Beltre, who is up for induction in 2024 (the same year in which Wright will become first-time eligible), will be a shoe-in for the Hall, as his career 95.6 WAR ranks third amongst third basemen, with Eddie Matthews (96.6) and Mike Schmidt (106.8) being the only names above him.
While many voters whose views lie in traditional statistical evaluation may slight Wright for his low hit total (1,777), OPS+ is Wright’s friend in this instance.
His career 133 OPS+ ranks 16th numerically and 12th total all-time among third basemen, with seven of those names above Wright already in the hall of fame.
If we’re putting players in on the basis of “what if,” then the Catfish Hunter argument should apply to Wright, as he was far more productive at his respective position over the course of his abbreviated career.
What is the endgame here though? Will Wright receive voter sympathy once 2024 rolls around and he becomes eligible?
Sadly, Wright may receive the same treatment as former teammate Johan Santana, who, like Wright, produced similar WAR totals (51.7), but failed to receive the necessary 5-percent needed to remain on the ballot.
As did Wright, Santana was on a clear path to Cooperstown, winning two AL Cy Young’s in 2004 and 2006, the pitching Triple Crown in 2006, and three ERA titles respectively while a member of the Minnesota Twins, before several halted comeback attempts ended his career following the 2012 season.
Ironically enough, the foregoing Hunter too dealt with loss, though this in a far more tragic manner, when longtime New York Yankees catcher Thurman Munson was killed in a plane crash during the 1979 season.
Like Wright and Santana, Munson was compiling a resume that would’ve had him enter Cooperstown prior to his untimely death.
An 11-year veteran, Munson was the recipient of the AL MVP in 1976, a seven-time all-star, and winner of three consecutive gold gloves from 1973-75, amassing 46.1 WAR during his brief career.
Baseball-reference notes that Munson’s WAR7 of 37.0 exceeds the average for hall of fame catchers, and his previously mentioned total of 46.1 ranks 12th amongst all catchers.
Like Santana and Wright, Munson is yet to be inducted into Cooperstown, and it doesn’t seem as if that looks to change anytime soon.
