Could Ohio State, Michigan Both Make CFP?

With the release of the latest College Football Playoff rankings, No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Michigan on Nov. 25 is set to become the biggest regular season game of the year for a consecutive season, as both are on course to enter The Game 11-0 for the second time in as many years.

The winner of that game not only becomes the conference’s last-ever Big Ten East champion for the foreseeable future — divisions go away in 2024 — but moves within a single win of making the CFP. What’s more? The loser of Ohio State-Michigan also could make its way into the CFP for the second straight season.

CFP Rankings Reactions: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State

No one-loss champion of a Power 5 conference has failed to make the CFP, but this year there are four one-loss teams inside the CFP’s top 10 that have a chance to win their respective conference championships: No. 6 Oregon, No. 7 Texas, No. 8 Alabama and No. 10 Louisville.

Oregon’s path would include avenging its only loss to an undefeated No. 5 Washington in the Pac-12 title game.

Texas’ path includes winning out, then relying on a résumé-building win at Alabama to counter a loss to an Oklahoma team that lost to Oklahoma State — which lost to a UCF team that isn’t good.

Alabama’s path includes running through what’s left of its schedule undefeated — including Auburn — and handing Georgia a loss in the SEC Championship. Nobody has beaten Georgia since the Tide did it in 2021.

Will No. 3 Michigan defeat Maryland if Jim Harbaugh isn’t there?

With the CFP committee ranking two-loss No. 9 Missouri ahead of one-loss Louisville, it is telling us just how much it thinks of the SEC yet again. It just means more to beat Tennessee — the Tigers’ best win — than it does to beat Notre Dame — Louisville’s best win. However, a win against undefeated No. 4 Florida State in the ACC title game would make the Cardinals nearly impossible to ignore, and their inclusion in the CFP on Dec. 3’s Selection Sunday plausible.

These scenarios lead to a question: Who would the four best teams be if Alabama, Texas, Oregon and Louisville each win their conference title games?

Provided Ohio State-Michigan is again a closely contested game between two of the three top-ranked teams in the sport, the CFP committee has demonstrated a willingness to include both the winner and the loser of The Game in college football’s Final Four.

Can the Buckeyes offense find its groove?

Is the loser of Ohio State-Michigan still one of the four best teams in the sport and worthy of an invitation to what is likely the last four-team playoff in history?

Is an Alabama team that could beat Georgia but lost to Texas better than a Texas team that beat Alabama but lost to Oklahoma? What about a Louisville team that lost to Pittsburgh but beat undefeated FSU for a league title?

What about a thick Pac-12 that has yielded just one top-five team (Washington) but might have the sport’s best one-loss team (Oregon)?

No. 5 Washington vs. No. 11 Oregon State in a pivotal matchup

The CFP committee would choose to avoid answering that question, yet it is the one that I find most compelling with two weeks left in the regular season, and three weeks before the committee has to settle on those four teams.

I hope they do have to answer these questions, otherwise, I just have to question their utility, because they aren’t passing the eye test — at least not mine.

The College Football Playoff Rankings as of Nov. 14.

Georgia (10-0)
Ohio State (10-0)
Michigan (10-0)
Florida State (10-0)
Washington (10-0)
Oregon (9-1)
Texas (9-1)
Alabama (9-1)
Missouri (8-2)
Louisville (9-1)
Oregon State (8-2)
Penn State (8-2)
Ole Miss (8-2)
Oklahoma (8-2)
LSU (7-3)
Iowa (8-2)
Arizona (7-3)
Tennessee (7-3)
Notre Dame (7-3)
North Carolina (8-2)
Kansas State (7-3)
Utah (7-3)
Oklahoma State (7-3)
Tulane (9-1)
Kansas (7-3)

More on the College Football Playoff Rankings

Tuesday’s reveal is the third of six rankings announcements, capped by Selection Sunday on Dec. 3.

The top four teams will compete in the CFP semifinals, which will be held on Jan. 1 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, and at the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. The national championship game will be held on Jan. 8 in Houston.

College Football Rankings remaining 2023 schedule