By: Jeremy T. Ballreich
The stakes for tomorrow’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff at Ford Field could not be higher. In a season defined by parity and December drama, we find ourselves at a crossroads. Both the Detroit Lions and the Pittsburgh Steelers enter this Week 16 matchup with identical 8-6 records, yet their trajectories feel remarkably different. For our Lions, this is a desperate “get-right” game following the defensive collapse against the Rams. For the Steelers, it’s about maintaining their narrow lead in the AFC North behind a revitalized, albeit aging, legend at quarterback.
As a Lions analyst, I see this game as the ultimate litmus test for Dan Campbell’s squad. Can this team shake off the heartbreak of SoFi Stadium and prove they belong in the postseason conversation? Or will the ghosts of NFC North past—specifically in the form of Aaron Rodgers—come back to haunt us in our own building?
The Lions’ Mandate: Fix the Leaks:
The 34-41 loss to the Rams was a bitter pill to swallow. While the offense proved it can trade blows with anyone, the defense looked like a sieve in the second half. To beat Pittsburgh, Kelvin Shepherd’s unit must address three glaring issues:
• Intermediate Pass Coverage:
• Matthew Stafford carved us up in the middle of the field last week. Now, we face one of the greatest manipulators of defensive zones in NFL history. Aaron Rodgers may not have the same mobility he had ten years ago, but his eyes are as sharp as ever. With safety Kerby Joseph out (knee), the pressure is on the secondary to communicate flawlessly.
• Pressure Without Pitting:
• The pass rush has been inconsistent. If we let Rodgers sit in a clean pocket, he will find George Pickens or Pat Freiermuth all day long. We need Aidan Hutchinson and the interior line to disrupt the rhythm early.
• Third-Down Discipline:
•Last week, the Rams extended drives far too easily. The Steelers’ offense under Arthur Smith thrives on “staying on schedule.” Forcing Pittsburgh into 3rd-and-longs is the only way to neutralize their veteran leadership.
The “Rodgers” Factor:
•It feels like a fever dream seeing No. 8 in a Steelers jersey, but Aaron Rodgers’ transition to the Steel City has been one of the biggest stories of the 2025 season. He’s coming off a two-game heater where he’s completed nearly 75\% of his passes.
Rodgers’ familiarity with Ford Field and the Lions’ defensive tendencies is a massive advantage for Pittsburgh. However, he is dealing with a nagging left wrist injury, and the Steelers’ offensive line has been shaky in pass protection. If Detroit can get home with a four-man rush, they can turn the tide. If they have to blitz to get pressure, Rodgers will do what he’s always done: find the vacated space and break our hearts.
Key Matchup: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Joey Porter Jr.:
•This is the heavyweight bout of the week. Amon-Ra St. Brown is playing at an All-Pro level, coming off a 163-yard, two-touchdown masterpiece against Los Angeles. He is the engine of Ben Johnson’s offense.
On the other side stands Joey Porter Jr., who has evolved into one of the league’s premier “lockdown” corners. The stats are terrifying: Porter hasn’t allowed a touchdown in coverage for 23 consecutive games.
• The Strategy: The Lions will likely move St. Brown into the slot to force mismatches, but don’t be surprised if Tomlin shadows him with Porter. If Jared Goff can’t find his “Sun God” early, the offense risks the same stagnation we saw in the third quarter against the Rams.
Sonic and Knuckles vs. A Shorthanded Front:
•Perhaps the biggest advantage for Detroit lies in the trenches. The Steelers’ defense is reeling from injuries, most notably the loss of T.J. Watt (Lung). Without Watt’s generational pass-rushing threat, the Lions’ offensive line—even with Taylor Decker and Graham Glasgow listed as questionable—should be able to dictate the terms of the game.
•Expect a heavy dose of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Steelers have struggled to stop the run in recent weeks, and the Lions lead the league in explosive rushing plays. By leaning on the ground game, Detroit can:
• Keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline.
• Protect a potentially hobbled Jared Goff (who took some big hits last week).
• Wear down a Pittsburgh defensive front that lacks depth behind its starters.
The Turnover Margin:
It is the stat that should keep Lions fans up at night. Pittsburgh is +10 on the year, while Detroit is +9. The Steelers win by playing “ugly” football—keeping the score low, forcing a crucial mistake, and letting Rodgers’ veteran poise win it late. Detroit wins by playing “fast”—lighting up the scoreboard and forcing the opponent to abandon their game plan.
Final Outlook and Prediction:
Ford Field will be electric tomorrow. This is essentially a playoff game for Detroit. A win puts us at 9-6 and keeps us in the thick of the Wild Card race (and mathematically alive in the North if Chicago slips up). A loss would be the first time under Dan Campbell that this specific core has truly “faded” in December.
The loss of T.J. Watt is the deciding factor for me. Without the threat of Watt off the edge, Jared Goff will have the time he needs to find Jameson Williams deep and work the intermediate game to Amon-Ra St. Brown. While Rodgers will certainly get his yards and likely a few highlight-reel scores, the Lions’ offensive diversity will be too much for a depleted Steelers defense to contain for 60 minutes.
Final Prediction:
Lions 31, Steelers 24.
The Lions offense carries the day once again, but the defense does just enough to stop a late-game Rodgers comeback attempt, securing a pivotal victory heading into the final stretch.
