With the field now set for the College Football Playoff, odds for the December 31 semifinal games were posted this afternoon on Caesars Sportsbook.
No. 1 Alabama is a 13.5-point favorite over No. 4 Cincinnati, the first Group of 5 team to make the CFP, in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex. The Crimson Tide are 5-0 all-time against the Bearcats, but the teams have not played each other since 1990, a 45-7 Bama blowout victory. The Tide, who are the top CFP seed for the fifth time, have been double-digit favorites in four semifinal games, winning all of them straight up but failing to cover in the last two: 19.5-point favorites vs Notre Dame last season (won by 17) and 14.5-point favorites vs Oklahoma three years ago (won by 11). The Bearcats are underdogs for the first time this season. The total for this game is 59 points. The last five Alabama CFP semifinal games all went Under the total.
“For Cincinnati-Alabama, I don’t expect too much movement with the number,” said Adam Pullen, Caesars Sportsbook Assistant Director of Trading. “I could see it maybe reaching 14, because of the nature of Alabama. Obviously, they are usually a huge favorite, and after yesterday, I think people will be backing them with both fists. They looked really strong and Cincinnati to many people is still an unknown. Even with the big point spread, I think you’ll see more Alabama money. We’ve had big spreads before in the playoffs, so it is nothing new.”
In the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., No. 2 Michigan is a 7-point underdog to No. 3 Georgia. The Wolverines were an FBS-best 11-2 ATS this season, and won easily in both their outings as underdogs, beating Ohio State, 42-27, while getting 6.5 points, and upending Wisconsin, 31-17, as 2-point dogs. The Bulldogs went 3-4 ATS in their last seven games of the season, including the 41-24 loss to Alabama in Saturday’s SEC title tilt as 6-point favorites. The total for this one is 43.5, which would be the lowest for any Georgia game this year and matches the season-low for Michigan (also 43.5 total vs. Wisconsin). The lowest total for any CFP semifinal or championship was 45.5, when Alabama defeated Georgia, 26-23 in OT, in the title game on Jan. 8, 2018.
“Michigan has looked really strong lately with the win over Ohio State and then dominating Iowa as the biggest favorite of the day, so I’m not surprised to see the number where it is,” said Pullen. “You all of a sudden saw Georgia look human, giving up 41 points. I don’t know if Michigan’s offense is as dynamic as Alabama’s. Still, when you put that seed of doubt in people’s minds, there will be some now who are skeptical of Georgia. But I don’t anticipate much movement with the line. In fact, I don’t see much volatility with either of these two games outside of a point move either way.”
In the semifinals of the seven previous College Football Playoffs, the favorite has gone 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS. Double-digit favorites are 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) in the semifinal round. Alabama has won five of its six previous semifinal contests, while hitting the number in just two of them. The lone outright loss came in the 2014-15 season, when Bama was upended by eventual champion Ohio State, who was a 9.5-point underdog. Georgia won and covered in its only previous CFP semifinal game, a thrilling 54-48, double-overtime victory over Oklahoma (+2.5) in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1, 2018. Michigan and Cincinnati are playing in the CFP for the first time.
At the start of this season, Alabama had the lowest odds of any team to win the national championship at +260. But those odds got as high as +1200 on Nov. 27, when the Crimson Tide escaped with a 24-22, double-OT win at Auburn. They now sit at +120 to claim their seventh national title in 13 seasons. Georgia was +750 to win it all in the preseason, the fourth-lowest odds, and was -220 entering Saturday’s SEC Championship Game. But after being dismantled by the Tide, the Bulldogs are +135 to win their first national title since 1980. Cincinnati and Michigan have come a long way. Just before the start of the season, the Bearcats were 150/1 to win the national title, while the then-unranked Wolverines were 100/1. Now Cincinnati is 14/1 to win its first national title and Michigan is 8/1 to hang its first championship banner since 1997.
College Football Playoff Semifinal Odds as of 2PM ET
| CINCINNATI vs ALABAMA @CAESARSSPORTS | CURRENT ODDS (12/5/21)@CAESARSSPORTS |
| SPREAD | ALABAMA -13.5 |
| TOTAL | O/U 59 |
| MONEY LINE | +400/-550 |
| GEORGIA vs MICHIGAN @CAESARSSPORTS | CURRENT ODDS (12/5/21)@CAESARSSPORTS |
| SPREAD | GEORGIA -7.5 |
| TOTAL | O/U 43.5 |
| MONEY LINE | -320/+250 |
College Football National Title Odds & Trends as of 2PM ET
| NATIONAL TITLE FUTURES @CAESARSSPORTS | PRESEASON ODDS | LONGEST ODDSTHIS SEASON | SHORTEST ODDS BEFORE SATURDAY’S GAMES | CURRENT ODDS(12/5/21) |
| ALABAMA | +260 | +1200 (11/27) | +160 (10/2-9) | +120 |
| MICHIGAN | +10000 | +10000 | +900 (12/4) | +800 |
| GEORGIA | +750 | +750 | -220 (12/4) | +135 |
| CINCINNATI | +15000 | +15000 | +1800 (12/4) | +1400 |
