By Louis Addeo-Weiss
When the Milwaukee Brewers announced the signing of Avisail Garcia on Tuesday to a 2-year/$20M deal, many in the industry saw this as the Brewers’ front office making a rather business-savvy move that could benefit them greatly.
Fast forward a mere two days later, and the Brew Crew have made yet another move with the potential to meet those guidelines, with news breaking of the team signing veteran first basemen Justin Smoak to a 1-year/$5M deal.
While coming off a less-than-stellar 2019 which saw the former Toronto Blue Jay hit a paltry .208 and total just 0.6 bWAR, many of the first baseman’s peripherals suggest his season can be assessed as an amalgamation of bad luck.
Yes, while Smoak’s .208 batting average is worrisome, positive trends, particularly the consistent stream of power and growing plate discipline, have continued to progress, as Smoak still managed to hit 22 home runs, post a viable .342 on-base percentage, and total a 101 OPS+ (league average is 100).
Referring to the graphic above, generated by young baseball-Twitter phenom, Jeremy Frank, Smoak’s ascendency to what made him an all-star in 2017 was the harnessing of his ability to hit for power, as well as a growing sense of the strike zone.
From 2017-18, Smoak amassed a .353 on-base, slugged .495, totaled 5.8 bWAR, and posted a 127 OPS+, the latter of which ranks 18th among all position players with at least 1,200 plate appearances in that span.
With all of this at our expense, it’s evident why Milwaukee looks brilliant with the signing of Smoak, but what other available means of data leads us to believe the 2017-all-star sees a return to form?
Enter Carlos Santana.
Signing a 3-year/$60M contract with the Philadelphia Phillies prior to 2018, Santana’s one season in Philadelphia – his age 32 season, as was Smoak’s 2019 – was wrought with struggles, with the fellow first baseman being traded back to the Cleveland Indians, the team he broke in with as a catcher in 2010.
Using baseball-reference’s player comparison tool, we see how eerie the comparison of the two’s seasons are, with a mere 4-point differential in OPS+ (Santana, 105, Smoak, 101), as well the relative closeness in home runs, on-base, slugging percentage, OPS, AIR, ISO (Isolated Power), etc.
“But that’s not all.”
The comparisons between the two’s lost seasons don’t stop there. According to baseball savant, in 2018, on batted balls coming from fastballs, Santana recorded an average exit velocity of 93.3.
As for Smoak, his average exit velocity on fastballs in 2019 was a nearly identical 93.7 mph.
Smoak, like the recently signed Garcia, will be playing half of his games at Miller Park, a stadium with single and multi-year park factors 102 and 101, this presents the opportunity for a better offensive showing, especially given Rogers Centre’s ballpark factors of 99 and 97, both of which favor pitching.
Santana would, however, rebound in a big way in 2019, turning in a career year with a slash line of .281/.397/.515, an OPS+ of 136, 4.5 bWAR, as well as earning his first all-star appearance. A lot of Santana’s success in 2019 can be attributed to playing home games in Progressive Field, a ballpark with a multi-year park factor of 104 (above 100 favors hitters).
Not that Smoak projects to hit .280, but taking into consideration the statistical similarities and other existing factors, Smoak having a bounce-back season just feels eminent.
