By Greg Fuchs
Major League Baseball’s free agent season is off to a fast and furious
start. Many teams are apparently awash in cash, as they are spending it
like a drunken sailor on shore leave.
Large contracts used to drive me crazy, but now I just take the
approach of “It’s not my money, so do what you want with it.” If the
teams don’t care about the money and the associated risk, why should
I?
The Texas Rangers kicked off the spending spree by signing pitcher
Jacob DeGrom to a 5 year $185M contract. You can argue that $37M/yr
for the best pitcher in baseball is just the going wage these days. But
let’s peal back the onion a bit. First of all, DeGrom is 34, so how
effective is he going to be when he’s 37 and 38 years old?
And more importantly, when I said he was the best pitcher in MLB, I
should have added “when healthy” as DeGrom has been a popular
guest on the injured list recently. In the 2021 and 2022 seasons he only
made a total of 26 starts spending half of each season on the IL with a
myriad of injuries. Do the Rangers think a 34-year-old DeGrom is all of
sudden going to find the fountain of health in Texas? They’ll be lucky to
get 20 starts a season out of him the next 3 years. Who knows how
many games he’ll be able to start in the last couple of year of his
contract. But it’s not my money, so…
So, let’s talk Trea Turner, the Phillies new shortstop. Turner is a
fantastic player and is only 29 years old, so I get Philadelphia wanting to
sign him. But they gave him an 11 year $300M contract. 11 years! He’ll
be 40 years old when is contract ends so what do the Phillies
realistically expect to get out of a player whose game is partially
dependent on his elite speed when his age becomes north of 35? They
may only be getting 6-7 years of real value out of Turner. His $300M
contract averages to $27.3M/year, but if they only get 7 good seasons
out of him it escalates to almost $43M/yr. Yikes! But it’s not my money,
so…
Fellow shortstop Xander Bogaerts also received an 11-year contract
from the San Diego Padres. $280M in total for a 30-year-old player. All
the comments above on Turner apply to Bogaerts, who will be
approaching 41 when his contract ends. Maybe Tom Brady shared
some of his fountain of youth secrets with him when both were playing
in Boston. But it’s not my money, so…
Which takes us to the Grand Daddy of contracts that the Yankees gave
Aaron Judge. The 30-year-old Judge received a 9 year $360M contract.
That’s $40M/yr on average! Well, at least it wasn’t an 11-year contract.
Judge is coming off a season when he hit a record 62 home runs. He’s
more likely to hit 45 home runs a season going forward and I would
expect a decline in 5-6 years when he enters his late thirties. But like I
said, “It’s not my money, so”
There was some financial sanity in baseball this week, though. The
Cardinals signed 30-year-old catcher Willson Contreras to a 5 year
$87.5M deal. Although Contreras hasn’t put up the stats the above
players have, he is one of the best all around catchers in MLB. 5 years
for a 30-year-old makes sense as does the $17.5M/yr average. I was
actually a little stunned when I saw his contract, as I was expecting a 7-
year deal in excess of $150M based on the other contracts being
signed.
And there is still much more money to be spent by MLB teams as there
is still a bunch of free agents out there including elite players like Carlos
Rodon, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson.
Will some of those contracts be ridiculous? I’m sure a few will be, so
just keep repeating “It’s not my money. It’s not my money.” Although
when MLB teams charge you $50+ for a ticket and $25 for a hot dog
and a beer, it kinda sorta is your money.
