| Pencils down, everyone. No more baseball-ing. Time — and the collective bargaining agreement — is up. In the wee hours of Thursday morning, just minutes after the old CBA expired, the MLB owners officially imposed a lockout of the players. As of now, the two sides have no bargaining sessions scheduled, an indication that the stoppage could stretch deep into the offseason. The players want to rework the league’s arbitration system so it more fairly compensates players earlier in their careers. They’d also like to promote competitive balance by disincentivizing teams from tanking. The league and its owners generally want to maintain the status quo. On a less existential note, no CBA also means no roster moves. No signings, no trades, no random waiver-wire claims. In other words: No fun, no joy, no hot stove to break up the cold monotony of winter. The transactional nothingness will be quite a vibe switch from the recent free-agency chaos. In the past week alone, the Rangers guaranteed more than half a billion to two middle infielders, the Mets gave Max Scherzer a three-year, $43 million per year contract, Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman each got five-year deals, Javy Báez signed a big pact with Detroit, and the Yankees … well, the Yankees signed José Peraza to a minor-league deal. The expected upcoming dead period creates an odd dynamic in comparison to most offseasons. The free-agent market, even in years when it inches glacially into late February, is normally dynamic. Signings happen regularly, with agreed-upon contracts for some players informing the demands and negotiations of others. Some teams opt to fill roster holes with trades instead of signings, which further alters the market. But now, with all player movement frozen until a new CBA is agreed upon — which likely won’t happen until January at the earliest — free agency is Han Solo in carbonite. It is Ted Williams’ floating head, just sitting there, waiting in stasis to be cryogenically unfrozen by a new CBA. But even after the recent flurry of moves, there’s still a supremely talented cadre of free agents available. Only about half of the premier, upper-crust players on the market have inked new contracts thus far. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the more compelling free agents yet to sign — even though it will surely be months before they do. Carlos Correa At no point during the recent frenzy did anyone expect Correa to sign before the deadline. Besides his breakfast/lunch date with AJ Hinch, all the movement on the former Astros shortstop has been in relation to the other shortstops who’ve signed. Corey Seager’s 10-year, $325 million pact with Texas is now inarguably Correa’s floor, though some around the game believe that Francisco Lindor’s recent 10-year, $341 million extension was his baseline already. We can almost certainly cross Texas and Detroit off Correa’s list of suitors. The Rangers already signed Seager and Marcus Semien, so unless they plan to spend a small European nation’s GDP on shortstops in one offseason, Texas is out here. Detroit just brought Báez aboard, a superstar in his own right who is set on playing shortstop. Maybe he’d slide to second for Correa, but that doesn’t seem likely. That makes two of Correa’s biggest rumored pre-offseason landing spots with the job filled before Dec. 1. Also, you can cross off the Marlins after Correa said Miami GM Derek Jeter didn’t deserve his Gold Gloves. That leaves the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox and, somehow, Mets. No team is a perfect fit for Correa. Some already have shortstops; others have payrolls approaching or surpassing the $200 million mark. But money is just money, as Steve Cohen has shown. Shortstops can be pushed to second or third base — even A-Rod moved once upon a time. Correa is a franchise-altering talent. Every team has a reason not to pull the trigger, but in the end, one will. Freddie Freeman Scroll through the replies of any tweet from the Braves, and you’ll see what the fans want. Whether it’s a Manny Piña one-year deal press release or a Happy Hannukah graphic, the mentions are the same: “Sign Freddie” or “Announce Freeman.” That Atlanta and its franchise first baseman never made headway in extension talks and allowed Freeman to reach free agency in the first place is notable. The two sides were — and seemingly remain — apart on dollars and years. But a reunion is still the likeliest scenario, even if Freeman already rejected an offer of five years and $135 million. Atlanta’s World Series joy is too fresh and the offseason too young for there to be serious bad blood between the two parties at this point. But the longer the Braves let Freeman linger, and the longer the two sides play chicken, the likelier it becomes that another team will swoop in and make Freeman an offer the Braves won’t match. You have to think another team would go above 5/135, but the fundamental question is: How far beyond that are the Braves willing to go? If Atlanta stands pat, perhaps the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays and maybe even Padres (if they can dump Eric Hosmer’s bloated contract) enter the mix. Kris Bryant Bryant’s journey from MVP third baseman to above-average utility bat has been quite an odd one. He remains a superb big leaguer, comes with the added bonus of potentially returning to his former dominance and still has incredibly beautiful eyes, but he is no longer the guy who carried the Cubs to a World Series title. Chris Taylor’s re-signing with the Dodgers clarifies Bryant’s market, as Taylor was the other major super-utility type available. The Mariners seem like a good fit for KB, as they still have room to spend, even after netting Ray, and they need someone to replace Kyle Seager at third. Philly is another fun option to think about. Remember when Bryce Harper was a free agent, and people thought Bryce would go to the Cubs to play with his friend Kris? Well, maybe the Vegas reunion happens at Citizens Bank instead. (The stadium — not an actual bank. Well, they can hang there, too, I guess, but that’s a weird place to hang out. Is that where rich people hang?) Kyle Schwarber A year ago, the thick thumb of a slugger was non-tendered by the Cubs and signed a small, one-year deal with the Nats. Then he went out and RAKED. Then the Nats traded him to Boston, where he also RAKED. That’s kind of all he does — RAKE — though his defense in left field is not nearly as horrifying as people think. Still, Schwarber is definitely a capital-H Hitter. Schwarber makes some of the best swing decisions in baseball. That is, he tries to do damage on hittable pitches and lays off pitches outside the zone. That and his top-shelf power should supersede his defensive limitations and land him a big, multiyear offer. When he’s going good, Schwarber is an incredibly fun player to have on your favorite team. Interesting possibilities would probably include the Phillies, Yankees, Jays, a Boston reunion and the Braves if they let Freeman walk. Kenley Jansen Jansen and the Dodgers have been down this road before. When Jansen first became a free agent after the 2016 season, he and L.A. did a few months of posturing and negotiating before agreeing on a five-year deal for the longtime closer. Jansen has had a fascinating trajectory since then. In 2019, his velocity dropped significantly, and he was closer to “average reliever” than the world-beating game-ender he’d been for almost a decade. Then the Dodgers turned to starter Julio Urías to close out the 2020 World Series instead of Jansen. Not great. Then in 2021, two important things happened. The first and most important was that Jansen started throwing harder; his average velocity jumped more than 1.5 mph between ‘20 and ’21. The second was that he started throwing fewer cutters. That’s right: The cutter-iest cutter-er since Mariano dialed back the usage of his signature pitch and mixed in more four-seam heaters and sliders. The results were huge: A rejuvenated Jansen threw 69 innings of 2.22 ERA ball with a bucket of strikeouts. Now, it’s rare for relievers to get two big paydays. Usually, guys aren’t consistent enough over a long enough period of time. Jansen has been generationally good, but he’s also a 34-year-old reliever. It will be interesting to see what kind of money he gets. As for his landing spot, being an L.A. Dodger seems like a pretty good time. Chris Taylor just took less money than he could have to come back. Jansen likely won’t give L.A. as friendly a hometown discount, but odds are he will return. If he doesn’t, expect a team on the edge of contention, such as the Padres, Blue Jays or maybe even Red Sox, to push all its chips in. |
